A peculiarity regarding the coronavirus curve

Let's do an exercise. Here are a few epidemiological curves for the SARS-CoV2 virus for a few select countries:

(and I use SARS-CoV2 instead of COVID-19 because COVID-19 is the disease caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus. You do not get infected (or test positive) for the disease, you test positive for the virus which, in turn, can give you the disease)

Canada Coronavirus: 415,182 Cases and 12,665 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

United States Coronavirus: 15,159,529 Cases and 288,906 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Italy Coronavirus: 1,728,878 Cases and 60,078 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Russia Coronavirus: 2,460,770 Cases and 43,141 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

France Coronavirus: 2,292,497 Cases and 55,155 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

United Kingdom Coronavirus: 1,723,242 Cases and 61,245 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Germany Coronavirus: 1,184,845 Cases and 19,159 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Sweden Coronavirus: 278,912 Cases and 7,067 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

You can repeat the same exercise with any country or territory in the northern latitudes (think north of the 40th parallel, where New York City is) and add them to this list.

Notice anything?

What I noticed is that the curve in each country is essentially the same- a rise in cases in March, a peak in April, a lull over the summer months, and a second wave beginning in August that is still continuing.

Yes, the United States has a bit of a bulge during the summer months, but remember that this bulge is small and they have a lot of territory that does not have the cold winters that Canada or Russia would experience.

Why do I bring this up? Because for the past few months now as cases surge everywhere, our healthcare officials and government leaders have been beating the drum that the reason is because the public has gotten lax with following the coronavirus protocols, insisting that if we all did our part we'd curb the curve.

However, when I see curves like this and I see so many other places experiencing similar patterns, I just can't help but think something else is at play- and that our health officials have gotten their policies and messages horribly wrong.

Again.

I grant that if you were to look at the curves in places like India, Spain and Brazil you'd get different results. I don't know enough about those countries to know what's really going on there so I'm not going to speculate.

However, by looking at "winter" countries, it makes me wonder if the long discredited idea of "seasonality" really does have a role in contributing to the spread of SARS-CoV2. Yes the curves began in August, but August is when temperatures typically start to drop after hitting the highs earlier in the year, and the rise in cases seems to correspond with dropping temperatures.

Could cooler weather make the virus easier to spread? I'd say there's a chance that's happening. It could also be because of the weather variations our bodies are more likely to react much stronger to the virus during the summer than it does during winter, which is one reason why the common cold and the flu tend to be worse in the winter months.

It could also be cooler weather brings people indoors and, more importantly, inside our homes. When temperatures start warming up, we go outside and spend less time inside, which means the virus circulates less. The opposite happens when the temperatures start dropping. More crucially, when we spend more time indoors, the virus has a better chance of circulating and incubating, so it's possible that when we spend more time inside our houses- where we're not "following the rules"- we're incubating more of the virus and thus getting sicker.

It could also be tied to the decision to reopen the schools, which in many European and North American jurisdictions begin their classes in August. It is true that kids and teens aren't at risk for developing serious complications from contracting the virus, but, perhaps, they are acting as carriers who pick up the virus at school and then bring it home to their parents and grandparents who are at a greater risk of developing complications from SARS-CoV2.

Let's not forget that the kids are still packing their classrooms as of this writing, as during this second wave, schools have not been shut down- which may be making this second wave worse.

I don't know. I'm just speculating. There are people wiser than me on this subject who can clarify things and tell me more about the nuances that exist when fighting this virus.

However, I do bring this up because it's yet another reason why the policies our healthcare officials and government leaders are pursuing right now- like claiming the spread is "our personal responsibility" and employing "targeted measures" are just not working.

If they did work, then the numbers would ebb and flow, with numbers going down when "targeted measures" are applied and going back up when they are not.

Same thing with our "personal choices". You'd think that with cases going up, people would suddenly not be so relaxed about "following the rules" which should, in turn, be reflected in the numbers when they are not.

More to the point, if the "recommended guidelines" were indeed effective, then they would have a noticeable effect on the number of hospitalizations occurring because of the virus. Or, at the very least, employing them would not bring hospitalization numbers to the point where they're causing a healthcare crisis.

I mean, even if they do have an effect, does it matter if it's not achieving their goals?

Ultimately, though, what gets me about the "personal responsibility" argument- aside from the clear fact it's a deflection tactic employed by the government so that if things go south, the public is blaming each other and not the government for it (or so they think)- is the fact that so many places are experiencing the exact same situation.

You'd think with so many different countries in the world there would be many different responses to the virus, and different levels of uptake with regards to the recommendations and the seriousness afforded to those recommendations and towards the virus itself.

Meaning that the curves in Britain, in France, in Canada, in New York, etc. should all be different, because those places are not going to react to the virus the same way.

Yet here we are, with each country facing the same situation.

We're talking about hundreds of millions, if not billions of people. Are they all getting lax with the recommendations and guidelines, and are they all not taking this virus seriously?

Please. If you believe that, then I have oceanfront property in Saskatchewan to sell you.

Is "COVID fatigue" a thing? It's possible. However, I would suspect that would abate once the curve truly kicks in, because once the numbers start going up again more people would take it seriously- which should, in turn, curb the curve...but that didn't happen.

Let me be clear. I'm not a conspiracy theorist or an "anti-masker" and I do take the virus seriously. I also do my utmost to follow the guidelines and rules as best as I can.

I'm also not anti-science or an anti-vaxxer. I'll likely be eager to get the coronavirus vaccine the instant it's available to me.

That said, there's a religiousness that comes with listening to people we deem "health experts" as well as our health officials and our government and that's troubling. No matter how many PhDs someone has, they can still make faulty arguments and they can still be wrong- sometimes horribly so.

It shouldn't take someone with another PhD to call them out on it, especially when the evidence is staring you right in the face.

...and the evidence that the SARS-CoV2 recommendations and measures are just not working are staring us right in the face. There is no question about this.

Yes, you can give our health officials the benefit of the doubt back in March when things were just starting to get out of control.

...and you can also give them the benefit of the doubt given that there's still tons of research to do about SARS-CoV2.

...but I can only give them so much. Nine months into the pandemic and four months into a second wave- one our health officials and experts liked to consistently tell us was going to happen way back in March- we should at least have a better idea of what we're doing to curb the curve.

Or, at the very least, know enough to know when our strategies are not working.

Yet here we are, parroting the same things that were being parroted in the spring, still drilled into our heads as "the only way" out of this mess.

Only this time it's clear it's not working, and it's not working in so many different areas.

What's the definition of insanity again?

-DG

Time to rethink the coronavirus strategy

In one week, it will be my birthday. A lot can still change between now and then, but, back in the spring, when the novel coronavirus pandemic began, I had thought by now the end would have come, or at least it would be in sight.

The latter might still be a possibility if the powers that be stop messing around with the vaccines, but that doesn't change the fact that, as of right now, the pandemic rages on and is well out of control. Only a handful of places on Earth will get to experience something resembling a "normal" Christmas, which, sadly, will not likely include me or anyone in my neighbourhood.

A reality which, in the spring, I would never have thought possible- and, really, one that never should have come.

Everyone has their reasons why the pandemic has gone sideways after a summer of hope. I know I have mine. Truth is, few of us are actually researching the novel coronavirus, so it's hard to really make determinations on this front, especially in regards to the most important question- the path forward.

The only thing I can say, knowing what I know, is that perhaps the coronavirus strategy is just not working.

Let's think about this for a second. We, in the Western world, have been told since early March there are "tried and true" guidelines to "stop the spread". You know what they are, so I won't repeat them. For nine months, the vast majority of us have been diligent in following these rules, being patient and making the "tough sacrifices" that we need to do to "curb the curve".

Or so we thought.

Back in June, when case counts were falling and it appeared that the pandemic was truly ebbing out of sight, it was easy to "suck it up" and follow the restrictions.

They were actually working, weren't they?

Then, August hit and the numbers again started to go sideways. Everyone had their excuses reasons, and so began the first in what would be many of these so-called "targeted measures". Each one was different depending on the jurisdiction, but the vast majority targeted indoor establishments where people tended to gather, whether at the home or at gyms, restaurants or bars.

We were told back then that these measures were necessary to "curb the curve" and, not knowing any better, we believed it.

That was September. As time progressed, so too did the cases, which were still growing and growing regularly. If the "targeted measures" had any effect, they were negligible, at best.

Which leads us to now, where several places are in lockdown or what the government calls a lockdown. Predictably, the government- which seemingly has "no other options available"- took this time to wag the finger at us, the public, blaming our "recklessness" and our "fatigue" for causing the lockdown to happen in the first place.

"If only you were such good children..."

My first instinct would be to lash out and say, "I've been a good boy! Don't blame me!". My next instinct would be to call the tactic for what it is, a deflectionary tactic designed to stop the public from asking the government the tough questions it doesn't feel like answering (though it should).

However, while momentarily therapeutic, such reactions gets me nowhere.

So I'm going to take a different approach and conclude that, after all these so-called "targeted measures" that none of them work at all. In fact, I'll just go out on a limb and say that none of our measures or recommendations that we've employed since the pandemic began have worked at all.

If the failure to get the pandemic under control was due to a few miscreants holding house parties and businesses openly flouting the rules, then the numbers would ebb as soon as you deal with them.

They haven't.

If the failure is tied to certain businesses, such as restaurants and bars, being risky, then you'd see the numbers ebb as soon as you shut them down.

They haven't.

If the failure is tied to "pandemic fatigue" and people thus "relaxing from the threat", then the numbers should ebb once the threat becomes "real" again and people get their guards back up.

They haven't.

If the failure is due to people getting together for Thanksgiving or Labour Day, or even the kids returning to school, then you'd see the numbers jump around in correlation to those events.

You guessed it...they haven't.

So maybe, just maybe, all the recommendations we were told from the beginning have no effect at all. I mean, if masking, distancing and washing your hands really did work, then the novel coronavirus would not spread as wantonly and as brazenly as it has. The numbers should, you know, ebb once those practices become commonplace.

You already know what I will say about that.

Yes, I know this is where it will be pointed out "there's nuances to all this" and, indeed, they're right. It's always pointed out by the powers that be that there's still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the novel coronavirus and, in the middle of a pandemic, employing the "precautionary principle" and "using what you think works best" is better than doing nothing.

However, at the same time, even when don't know what will work, you still have to account for the times when what you're doing doesn't work and change course accordingly. It's bad leadership and policymaking to pursue the same policies when it becomes clear they're not working. This is Policymaking 101 for the best of times- in the middle of a crisis where answers are demanded and excuses are forbidden, this becomes even more prudent.

Especially now, when literally billions of lives and livelihoods hang in the balance in a way that hasn't been seen in generations. No one has time for finger-waving and excuses, and we certainly don't have time to keep on going along with policies that are essentially meaningless.

It's here where someone will likely bring up the vaccines, because there's been a lot of great news about them lately. I do think there's a real chance they'll come out soon and end the pandemic sooner rather than later, because governments know the urgency in deploying them so they have at least a better incentive to get this right than other parts of the pandemic response.

Still, that's likely a few months away at best and it's still bad strategy. Even if it's 80% or 90% that the vaccines will roar the world back to life in March 2021, you still have to account for the chance that it doesn't. If governments think the public's patience is gone now, wait until they've dragged the pandemic into the summer or even the fall of 2021.

So I think the government has to make one of two choices, ones that to my knowledge are the best ones to work.

One would be a no-nonsense, full, total and complete lockdown, where only what is truly essential is open and public interaction is kept to a minimum. You apply this until the case counts get to zero or near zero, after which managing the pandemic shouldn't be a problem. This is akin to what was done in Victoria, Australia and it worked wonders. Say what you will about Victorian Premier Dan Andrews but his decisiveness means that Australia will actually get to celebrate their Christmases properly while we'll be literally left in the cold.

Yes, an approach like this will mean people will not be happy. Yes, an approach like this means that the government will need to give people and businesses meaningful relief so they don't need to worry about leaving their homes for work just so they can pay their bills. However, an approach like this is the only one that makes sense when you have a deadly disease out there- if the disease is so scary that no one should be "out and about" so they can catch it, why risk giving the disease any opportunity to spread?

The other would be to literally reopen every business- and I mean every business- and tweak the guidelines so that the risk for every business is as minimal as it can be while still allowing them to be functional. You also accept that not everyone is going to take the same amount of risk with the virus, and you accept that, inevitably, the virus is going to spread- you just want to mitigate its effects as much as possible. This means that instead of shutting down restaurants, throwing a fit because someone's hosting a party and telling people not to hug their friends, you tell people "here's what we recommend you do to do those activities safely"...and then let people use their brains and figure out how they want to proceed.

I want to stress that I'm not talking about the "herd immunity" approach. While I do believe it's possible, I don't believe it's a sound strategy to hope for it as long as the chances are there you won't achieve it.

Rather, it's about accepting our reality. We don't test everyone so we don't know how many people truly have the virus, so we have no hope of containing it right now. Until we get to that point, the only option, really (besides quashing the spread completely with a lockdown), is accepting that it will spread, let people know of the risks and then allow them to assess that risk on an individual level. Yes, a strategy like this means there will be people getting sick and dying (unfortunately), and yes, the government will have to commit to investing in massive amounts of resources to handle the pressures, but "managing the disease" is what we do for all the other diseases out there, so why should the novel coronavirus be any different?

I don't know. I'm not researching the novel coronavirus so take all of that with a grain of salt. It may work, it may not work.

One thing is clear to me, though- nine months of whatever the government has been doing to contain the virus has not been working. Their guidelines, their recommendations, their measures have meant nothing and they'll continue to mean nothing the more they lean on them. In the time of a crisis, it's inexcusable that the government would just allow it to drag on and do nothing meaningful to end it as quickly as possible. There's only so long we, as the public, can accept finger-waving and lecturing from the government before we get to asking them, "what have you done for us"?

-DG