Into The Crystal Ball- Round 2

What a finish.

In a first round that featured three Game 7’s (including one decided in overtime), six Game 6’s, three near comebacks from 3-1 down (the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks), lots of surprises (the Ducks’ ouster, the whipping of the Ottawa Senators and Dan Ellis of the Nashville Predators nearly ousting the Detroit Red Wings on his own) and eight overtime games, the National Hockey League’s Round of 16 in 2008 was a Round you just didn’t want to see end. Unfortunately it has to, but the great first round should set up a barnstormer of a Round 2 winding down to a fantastic finish in the Cup Final after a dud of 2007 playoff year (only one Game 7 and six Game 6’s out of all the playoff games).

It also means it’s time for another peak into my crystal orb (5-3 in Round 1) to tell you who will win the Stanley Cup.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Conference Semi-Finals

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

They may have both gotten the expected results, but both the Canadiens and the Flyers know they were lucky to escape from the first round after both nearly blew 3-1 series leads to the Boston Bruins and the Washington Capitals respectively, with the latter series not decided until Philadelphia’s Joffrey Lupul, quiet all series long, netted the overtime winner in Game 7. Neither team enters with a lot of confidence or a lot of answers, as the Flyers saw the Capitals beat them at their own game in outhitting Philadelphia and playing with a lot more energy and intensity and the Canadiens saw their power play suffer dramatically against Boston and goaltending sensation Carey Price turn into a sieve after his peewee level blunder gifted Glen Metropolit the Game 5-deciding goal. If there is a redeeming factor for both it is the fact Philadelphia is again playing a Capitals-like team in the fast, skilled Canadiens (albeit Montreal has more overall skill than Washington does) and Montreal knows that they beat the Flyers all four times during the regular season (including a 1-0 Price shutout on February 16). The Flyers also know that they possess the playoffs’ leading marksman (Daniel Briérè with six goals) and the Canadiens should get inspirational captain Saku Koivu back to full health as the series wears on. Now, when I first forecasted this series in the Round 1 predictions (based on the regular seasons, mind you), I saw a Philadelphia victory because the Canadiens are not as big as Philadelphia is, but after watching the two teams in the playoffs- and knowing that Koivu is returning for Montreal- the Canadiens appear to be the better team (especially if Alexei Kovalev comes back to form). The Flyers may still be bigger but the Canadiens showed they could be physical if they had to be, and despite how wobbly Price is, Price is a much better goaltender than Washington’s Cristobal Huet. Montreal might not score as much against a revitalized Martin Biron for Philadelphia (who should have enough juice to give Montreal a test), but by the end it’ll be Montreal moving on to Round 3.

Canadiens 4, Flyers 2

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers

Sidney Crosby on Broadway- another series I forecasted during the regular season edition but played now under incredibly different dynamics. Then I predicted a Rangers team where Henrik Lundqvist would defy the odds and steal the series from the heavily favoured Penguins, but after watching Crosby & Co. utterly dismantle the Ottawa Senators there’s just no way that I can see that happening now. The Rangers gained more notoriety in Round 1 after Sean Avery’s stick-waving in front of New Jersey Devils netminder Martin Brodeur caused the NHL to amend the rulebook, but the Devils- a shell of their former Stanley Cup-winning selves- were hardly overwhelmed by New York (despite the series scoreline), who played with more purpose throughout the series. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, saw Evgeni Malkin, greybeard Gary Roberts and (eventually) Marian Hossa emerge as a dynamic compliment to Crosby, which will pose match-up nightmares for Rangers’ coach Tom Renney. Meanwhile, all Penguins bench boss Michel Therrien has to worry about is Scott Gomez, the aging Brendan Shanahan and the moody Jaromir Jagr. Not only that, but the Penguins’ defence, led by puck movers Ryan Whitney and Kristopher Letang and sharpshooter Sergei Zubov clearly outclasses the largely no-name Rangers defence and players such as Maxime Talbot, Jarkko Ruttu and Ryan Malone give Pittsburgh the jam they need to compete against the likes of Avery and Ryan Callahan. Really, the only edge the Rangers have is Lundqvist over Marc-Andre Fleury in goal. That may be worth a victory or two, but this is Pittsburgh’s series to lose.

Penguins 4, Rangers 2

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

It’s almost like a homecoming for Crosby, who played his junior hockey in Rimouski, which is just up the Gaspé Peninsula. Still, Crosby’s welcome in Montreal will be hardly cordial, since Montreal is likely to be viewed as the underdog despite being the higher seed. That underdog tag will be more than an illusion as the teams are match up well until you see Pittsburgh’s far deeper forward cast. Montreal does have enough talent to push Pittsburgh to the brink (especially with Price), but the Penguins have enough magic to pull out of La Belle Province with a hard-fought, Eastern Conference-winning performance.

Penguins 4, Canadiens 3

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

Doesn’t come with the same kind of sizzle that earlier Wings-Avs series did, but old rivalries die hard. Many of the veterans from series past- Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote on Colorado and Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper and Chris Chelios on Detroit- are still present on both teams ensuring that the nastiness from years past will at least make an appearance. The nastiness factor might seem convincing enough to take Colorado in this series, since the Red Wings don’t have the muscle to win that battle, while the fact that Detroit needed a fluke goal in Game 6 against a better-focused (but clearly overmatched Nashville team) adds fuel to the Colorado fire; but this series will be anything but a slam dunk for the Avalanche. It was the goaltending of Jose Theodore and the fact that the Avalanche faced an offensively challenged Minnesota Wild team that pulled the Avalanche out of Round 1, as Sakic, Forsberg and Foote are past their primes, and Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny have no support lower on the depth chart (in addition to both being virtually invisible in Round 1). Detroit, meanwhile, can throw Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk up front as well as Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski on the back end in addition to having a capable army of smart two-way players who will never give up the puck. Plus, the Avalanche just aren’t mean enough to really throw Detroit off their game. Colorado will probably eke out a win or two, but don’t expect any repeats of years past, since the Red Wings have more than enough to cruise into Round 3.

Red Wings 4, Avalanche 1

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

Any doubts that the Sharks couldn’t be a Stanley Cup-contending team can be laid to rest after the four-goal second period drowned the Calgary Flames out of Game 7 and out of the playoffs in Round 1. San Jose survived a series that lived up to the hype as the closest matched series in the first round and only pulled through because the Flames had the one “bad period” in Game 7 that the series had yet to see. In addition to dousing Calgary’s Stanley Cup aspirations (and the added confidence that brings), the Sharks also re-established their best players among the league’s elite, as Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau finally broke loose against the Flames, with the old warrior Jeremy Roenick providing the added leadership that perhaps San Jose had lacked in previous years. The only concern might be defenceman Brian Campbell’s sub-par performance, but he did pick it up in the final two games signalling a breakout. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars didn’t at all look thoroughly convincing in their upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, since that series was marked more by the Ducks shooting themselves in the foot with too many penalties (and, despite what Don Cherry said about it, none of them was due to roughness- all of them were obvious and stupid, including needless cross-checks and obvious trips and hooks) and a Dallas team that needed a third period outburst in Game 6 to defeat an Anaheim team that had more purpose in staving off elimination in Game 5 following a 3-1 series deficit. Still, there’s enough on the Stars’ roster to give the Sharks a push, including power forward Brendan Morrow, elite two-way forward Brad Richards, the revitalized Stephane Robidas and Mike Ribeiro and Marty Turco, the affable elite goaltender who showed he finally could win a playoff series. However, I’d be hard-pressed to pick against San Jose following their performance against Calgary and despite all the talent on Dallas’ roster, there’s just not enough to overcome the Bay Area-ers in 2008.

Sharks 4, Stars 2

Conference Final

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #2 San Jose Sharks

The Wings may have won last year in six games but they didn’t play a Sharks team quite like this one, one that will have a lot more purpose, passion and talent than the team Detroit put away last year. This is where the Hockeytown dream dies, since the Wings finally face off against that physical team with skill that would be problematic for them, although San Jose isn’t quite Anaheim in terms of physicality. Still, anyone expecting a tight series will be disappointed, because by this point San Jose will be brimming with confidence after two rounds and the Wings will look more like they’re stumbling through being merely lucky to get the favourable draw for the playoff match-ups that they did. Look for the Sharks to avenge last year in four quick games.

Sharks 4, Wings 0

STANLEY CUP FINAL

W2 San Jose Sharks vs. E2 Pittsburgh Penguins

The pundits in Canada will whine the series will have no sizzle without a “traditional” (re: Canadian) team in the Final (despite the fact that Crosby is playing in this final) but once the series starts they’ll realize there’s a lot to love. It’ll be the physical Sharks against the skilled Penguins, with both teams matching up considerably well. San Jose does have an edge in goal- Evgeni Nabokov over Fleury- but that won’t be enough to tilt the series considerably in the Sharks’ favour as the Penguins’ speed and talent level will give San Jose coach Ron Wilson fits all series long. This will be an exciting series to watch, full of goals and full of hits and, much like Calgary-San Jose, will be up-and-down all series long. At the end of the day, it’ll be the Sharks bringing the Cup back to the West Coast, as although the Penguins have slightly more skill, the Sharks have more muscle and at this time of year, that means everything. Pittsburgh will show the NHL world that they will be a force for years to come, but their Stanley Cup won’t arrive this year.

Sharks 4, Penguins 3

-DG