Into The Crystal Ball: Conference Final Edition

Now that the Conference Semi-finals are *finally* over (a nod to the epic marathon the Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks provided us in the Stars’ 2-1, quadruple overtime victory in Game Six that ended San Jose’s season), it’s time to look into my shiny orb and tell you who will be in the Stanley Cup Final- and ultimately who will win it.

(Semi-final record: 2-2, Overall record: 7-5)

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #5 Dallas Stars

The way Game Six was going, one had wondered if this series would begin at all, but Brenden Morrow ended all speculation of that by scoring midway through the quadruple overtime session to oust the Sharks. The result can be characterized as an upset since no one believed Dallas could have defeated San Jose, but as the series played out the Stars were more than just the equals to the Sharks- they were, in fact, superior. At least at San Jose’s game- the dump-and-chase, clog-the-middle, grind-it-out-and-overpower-them type system. It’s small wonder why Morrow- one of the best power forwards in the NHL today- torched the Sharks with four goals in six games (and two others called off) to single-handedly lead the Stars past San Jose. He’ll probably have a field day with the Wings’ smaller forwards and will appreciate the fact he- and the rest of his teammates- won’t have to face an elite goaltender (although Chris Osgood has been effective in that area for Detroit), but the Stars’ defensive system is going to have fits containing the Wings. The Sharks played a simple- maybe too simple- north-south game: the Wings are very adept at moving the puck laterally as well as forward with their mobile, puck-moving rearguards led by Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom and that is going to cause countless coverage problems. Plus, Detroit isn’t just Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg anymore- Johan Franzen, “The Mule”, can now be included in that elite group after breaking Gordie Howe’s mark for goals in a series with nine against Colorado (a mark Franzen set in four games- Howe needed all seven to pot eight). The Stars do have an equalizer in Marty Turco who has been stellar in this post-season, but if Turco thought the Game Six barrage was tough, he should wait for the siege the Wings will put on him. Dallas has the resources to keep the series close, but it’s Detroit’s series to lose.

Red Wings 4, Stars 3

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

Okay, so the Montreal Canadiens don’t have the same kind of firepower the Penguins have, the Flyers barely hung on to leads and suspect goaltending helped the Flyers’ goal-scoring against Montreal but make no mistake- Philadelphia deserves to be here and will give Pittsburgh a tougher test than some might realize. The Flyers- led by dynamic two-way forwards Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, offensive dynamo Daniel Briérè and emerging power forward R.J. Umberger- have the wheels to match up with the Penguins’ forward cast led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marian Hossa as well as the emerging Ryan Malone and the rejuvenated Petr Sykora. On defence, the Flyers’ defensive pairing of Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Cobourn has been a sparkplug with eleven assists between them (Timonen is tops with six) to counteract the Penguins’ Ryan Whitney who has five assists, while Pittsburgh’s normally sharpshooting defenceman Sergei Gonchar has gone cold with a single goal in this post-season. Not only that, neither team is great in the shutdown department, so expect the series to be free-flowing with a lot of lead changes. In goal, neither team has much of an edge- both Martin Biron and Marc-Andre Fleury are effective albeit not elite goaltenders, but Fleury does have the feather in his cap about being able to outplay New York Rangers netminder Henrik Lundqvist. Regardless, this is the Battle of Pennsylvania, and that by itself ensures that series is going to be close, as well as nasty- if Crosby and Malkin thought the Rangers were tough to handle wait until they see what the Flyers have brought for them: they’ll make Sean Avery & Co. seem like a cakewalk. This series will go down to the wire and it’s hard to predict a winner, but as I look into the orb, it faintly paints a picture of a Penguin, as Pittsburgh is playing a bit more cohesively and consistently than Philadelphia is and that is why they get the ultimate edge.

Penguins 4, Flyers 3

STANLEY CUP FINAL

W1 Detroit vs. E2 Pittsburgh

This will be the most talked about Cup series for years, featuring two teams that play wide-open, free-flowing styles that promise a Final series that will be extremely entertaining to watch and extremely compelling. Will this be Sid the Kid’s first Cup of many? Will the Wings finally be rewarded for the organization’s consistent excellence, having been to the playoffs every year since 1991? Which goaltender will buckle under the expected siege both teams are capable of producing? The teams match up considerably well, as the Wings’ mobile and offensively gifted rearguards counterbalance Pittsburgh’s edge at forward, even though both sides have adequate weaponry in the other area as well. The decider, though, is in goal- Fleury has been better this playoff year than Osgood has, and that is what is ultimately going to decide the Stanley Cup Final: Fleury has consistently shown that no matter what the score he can pull out the Penguins, while Osgood has had to rely on his dynamic offence to build him a lead he can only barely hold. The Wings will make it close and interesting, but it’s Pittsburgh’s year to hoist the Cup.

Penguins 4, Wings 3

-DG