One Wild Week

Usually, the last weekend of the National Football League regular season leaves a lot to be desired. Drama is promised, but the reality is that many teams at this stage of the season are merely going through the motions. There may be a playoff spot or two up for grabs but the reality is the last week of the season offers little more than glorified exhibition games.

Week 17 of the 2008 season would change all that.

In the American Football Conference, the wild card races offered very little in the form of drama, as the results were predictable: the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots both defeated the woefully underachieving Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills (respectively), ensuring that the No. 6 spot went to Baltimore. This left the division races for the AFC East and West, where the real drama was. The Patriots still had a hope if the New York Jets could defeat the Miami Dolphins, but Miami would prevail in a back-and-forth game that was easily the best game all afternoon. In the process, the Dolphins (11-5) became the first team to win a division a year after finishing 1-15 as well as ensure New England would be the first 11-5 team out of the playoffs since the 1985 Denver Broncos. In the West, the division title would be determined by the winner of the night game between the San Diego Chargers and the Broncos (the “NFL Playoff Play-in Game”, if you will). The winner wasn’t much of a shock- San Diego had won three straight going into the game, the Broncos had lost two straight- but the result was. One expected Denver, trying to avoid becoming the first team to blow a three game division lead with three games to go, to come up with an inspired effort, but they could only offer a flaccid performance in a 52-21 loss to San Diego. The Chargers did win their third straight division title, but it was their most improbable- a month ago they were 4-8 and written off, but like baseball’s Philadelphia Phillies in 2007 against the New York Mets, they ran the table to overcome those odds to claim the title. The Broncos and their defence probably meant that they didn’t deserve a title anyway, but even still, there’s no excuse for their monumental collapse.

Even with the Chargers’ and Dolphins’ completion of their improbable runs, the NFC would still outdo the AFC. At the start of the day, the Philadelphia Eagles were 8-6-1 and needed everything short of a planetary alignment to get themselves in the playoffs. The Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings all stood in front of them at 9-6, with the Bears and Vikings still battling for the NFC North division title with the loser still in the running for the wild card. The Eagles would play the Cowboys themselves, but Tampa Bay was playing the woeful Oakland Raiders, Chicago was playing the already eliminated Houston Texans and Minnesota was playing the New York Giants, who already knew they were the No. 1 seed. Minnesota would be the only team of that group which won, as Chicago and Tampa Bay both lost close games in a pair of upsets. The Eagles were thus still in the playoff picture when they faced Dallas, and it must have buoyed them since the Eagles literally ran all over the Cowboys in a 44-6 rout. Not to be forgotten would be the Detroit Lions- or should I say “Kittens”- who made NFL history in a 31-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers, ensuring that they are 0-16. Here’s hoping that is the bottom for Detroit, because I can’t imagine what that kind of losing streak would feel like.

Much of the talk after Sunday’s games focused on the futures of both the Cowboys and the Jets’ (for now) Brett Favre. There’s little to say about the Cowboys except that they just blew it, with the chief culprit being head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips never got the team to play as a team and could never be convincingly in control of his troops. Terrell Owens needs no introduction here, since he obviously believes he’s the coach in insisting that he (and new buddy Roy Williams) should receive the ball more, admonishing Tony Romo for throwing to Jason Witten (easily Dallas’ most reliable receiver, if not the only one). However, against Philadelphia it was obvious that it wasn’t just Owens who was causing problems- in the 2nd quarter, facing a 4th-and-short, Romo waved off the punting team that Phillips sent out and ran a (successful) play himself. If that’s not an indicator that Phillips has lost control of his team I don’t know what is, since there’s no excuse for letting your own players overrule you. Taking heed of their suggestions is one thing but letting them tell you what to do is another. Speaking of Romo, it may be time to part ways with him- he clearly can’t handle the pressure of being the Dallas quarterback, a mentality issue that prevents him from becoming a truly elite quarterback. Owens could go too, although if owner/General Manager Jerry Jones does the right thing and hire a disciplinarian head coach that might temper Owens and allow him to shine more as a receiver.

Favre’s future was dicey before coach Eric Mangini was fired earlier today. Reports indicated that Mangini didn’t like Favre’s decision-making and- like he does for the rest of his players- called out Favre for them in front of the team. This was not how Favre was treated in Green Bay (where he had his own “office”) and had Mangini stayed, Favre may have retired. With Mangini gone, Favre may just stick around, because he can still play- he didn’t get the Jets to 8-3 by doing nothing. The interceptions are still terrible, but the truth is in the last five games, the Jets’ short passing attack has failed them (for example, where was Dustin Keller, the highly touted tight end at mid-season), meaning Favre has to throw it long. Thus, the Jets’ focus this off-season should be at the tight end spot to give Favre a short passing option he can trust, because that is what ultimately did the Jets in during their December collapse.

That story will be revisited in the offseason. Now, the regular season is over and the Playoffs can begin. With so many bizarre finishes in Week 17, who knows what will be in store for the Playoffs. One thing is certain though- with the crazy ride that was Week 17, this can only mean the real Playoffs are going to be fun.

-DG

As The Strike Continues, So Does York’s Unhappy Holiday (Part 2)

Now that we’ve established that neither side have conducted themselves well in this strike, it is time to establish what needs to be done to solve this mess. This is a three-pronged strategy, starting with binding arbitration, continuing with both sides hiring more reasonable management teams and the establishment of the teaching sector as an essential service.

Since it’s obvious that a negotiated settlement is too distant at this stage, the only hope for a quick settlement is binding arbitration. Before I begin this point, let me take a minute to explain how it really works, because CUPE’s missives are simply wrong. CUPE argues that any “binding” settlement takes the average of all the other settlements in their sector to come up with a figure for their agreement. This would mean, for example, that since their wages are the highest in Ontario their wages would be reduced because it’s not at the average. It’s great propaganda, but that’s not how it works- there’s no reason to apply an average with figures not even close to an average as it currently stands. What does happen is the arbitrator examines both arguments, sees the figures and assesses which one is more reasonable. The arbitrator may look at other agreements for precedent so that if the current agreement does not have figures that could be considered “fair” for workers in the sector, the future agreement can be brought in line with fairer numbers. There’s nothing in the current agreement- especially with regards to wages, the highest in Ontario- that could be considered “unfair” for the workers, so it’s likely the binding agreement won’t significantly shortchange either side. Besides, the strike ended in 2001 with binding arbitration, so there is historical precedent for that move.

However, before binding arbitration is formally proposed, both sides should be forced back to the table and hold meaningful negotiations. The provincial mediator appointed to the talks, Greg Long, was wrong to suspend the talks. He was correct in his assessment that talks were going nowhere because neither side was doing enough to have meaningful discussions, but suspending the talks does nothing to solve the problem. It’s his job as a mediator to find the common ground and get the talks moving. Besides, forcing the two sides to talk might just spur productive conversations anyway. The province needs to formally push both sides back to the table and let them hack away at an agreement for a few days and if no progress is made, order binding arbitration through back-to-work legislation. It’s likely that’s how the strike will be resolved anyway since talks haven’t been meaningful, but negotiations should be given a fairer shot than they have been first.

Once the strike is resolved, it is time for York and CUPE to clean house at the management level. When the TA’s at Queen’s rejected a move to be unionized, they specifically cited the problems at York. At York, the Queen’s TA’s mentioned, relations are venomous, producing a culture of antagonism on both sides. This is nothing but perfect fermenting ground for strikes, and there’s no other source for relations like that but at the top.

It’s hard to argue with the Queen’s TA’s over their assessment. In the past eleven years, York has experienced three strikes (the 2000 and 2008 CUPE strikes and a 1997 strike by its professors’ union), indicating an administration that clearly doesn’t know how to deal with its own employees. That alone would be reason enough to hire new management at York, but that’s just icing on the filthy cake of York’s many indiscretions. The history of strikes and near-strikes on the CUPE side also shows a history of mismanagement of relations between the union and York, with other missteps- such as disrupting the exams of Schulich and Osgoode (separate Faculties at York unaffected by the strike) and the occupation of Shoukri’s office (instead of going back to the negotiating table to talk)- further hinders the lot of CUPE management. Both sides have had enough time to establish positive relations yet consistently it moves in the opposite direction, so it’s time for both sides to install power figures who can be more cordial and reasonable with each other.

Lastly, it’s time to ensure that disruptions of this caliber do not happen again and you do that by preventing strike action entirely. I do wish to stress that I am not arguing that unions (or even striking) be made illegal, because the right to unionize and to strike offers protection to employees against overzealous employers that is still vital to this day. Most unions are noble, being mindful of their situations and only strike if the situation truly calls for it, and it would be unfair to punish those unions because of the actions of an overzealous few (like CUPE); and even there most unions do not work in the public sector so there’s no point for the government to regulate employee-employer relations.

However, when those unions do work in the public sector and provide a vital service- such as CUPE- a strike unfairly hampers the lives of people who depend on the strikers’ service and those unions should not be allowed to strike by having their work declared an “essential service”. Put in other terms: if workers at the GM plant in Oshawa go on strike, then the public does not get the chance to purchase a GM car, a product they can live without. If CUPE strikes, then students are denied an education, a service they vitally need to be productive workers in Canada and thus is a service that cannot inherently be denied. It’s a tag that shouldn’t just be applied to CUPE but the other teaching sectors (including the professors and elementary and secondary school teachers) across Ontario as well (I’d also love transit across the province to get this designation but that’s an argument for another day). The essential service designation wouldn’t mean a total halt to disruptions, since all the work TA’s and contract faculty would be required to perform is to hold classes; and work not related to that (such as office hours and perhaps even marking by TA’s) would not be required. It still wouldn’t be a perfect scenario for students but at least they will be able to obtain the service they require- their education- without having to worry about the relations between employer and employee. The students are the most important part of any school and it is unfair to drag them into a situation they are unable to have any say in.

That’s my plan for solving this mess. It’s unlikely that’s how it will play out, since the Ontario government rarely gets involved in situations like this (unless it’s the Toronto Transit Commission) and the way both CUPE and York handle themselves it’s unlikely they’ll drastically alter their relations with each other. Binding arbitration is still likely; albeit probably late in January meaning the undergrads’ year is effectively lost. However, if York and CUPE want real changes and real solutions to their problems they will drastically alter the way they conduct their business. Otherwise, this is just going to be another struggle in already titanic war, a war students are unwittingly and unfairly a part of. If both sides truly care about the students (like they say they are) they will end the war- otherwise their mollifying words are just going to ring hollow and that’s not how any school should ever operate.

-DG

As The Strike Continues, So Does York’s Unhappy Holiday (Part 1)

“Deep in the heart of the York U jungle
You can hear the unions rumble
Ooooh Ooooh
Strike U! Strike U”

-Graffiti written on a scaffolding wall during the construction of the (now completed) William Small Commons Parking Structure, 2001. The writing is a play on the “fight chant” at the time for York’s varsity teams (then known as the Yeomen), with the original’s “yeomen” being replaced with “union” and “York” with “Strike”.

Perhaps I was one of the lucky ones to have completed my undergraduate studies at York University when I did. I studied History from September 2001 to April 2006, starting my studies less than a year after the Canadian Union of Public Employees local 3903, representing the University’s Teaching and Graduate Assistants as well as “contract” (i.e., non-tenured) faculty, brought York to a standstill for 78 days. Classes had to be extended well into May just to complete the semester, severely cutting into summers students so desperately needed to work in order to pay for their studies. CUPE 3903 threatened to strike twice more when I was studying, in October 2002 and again in 2005, with deals only being reached at the 11th hour. However, the volatility of the situation meant midnight was going to strike sooner rather than later, which it did on November 6, 2008. Then, the over 3,000 members of CUPE 3903 walked off the job after negotiations again broke down with the University, with no resolution in sight after 44 days of striking. Instead, what is happening is both sides are attacking each other and blaming the other side for holding up negotiations, hoping the other side cracks so they can begin talking again. This dangerous game of chicken might work at General Motors when there’s no third party in play, but here there is, as both sides’ selfish war of attrition is needlessly inconveniencing the year of York’s students who are supposed to be the most important part of the University.

On the union side, ostensibly, there are two central issues at play in the strike- wages (surprise, surprise) and job security for contract (i.e., “non-tenured”) faculty. I won’t take a lot of time to comment on the demands, except to say that neither side has it right. With regards to wages, CUPE is hoping for an effective raise of anywhere between 22%-47%, expecting York to raise their already exorbitant salaries so they can be in line with the Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) in Toronto (roughly $23,000 a year). There’s nothing wrong with wanting income to get to COLA, but TA’s already get $36/hr. for 10 hours a week and, despite CUPE’s many pleas to the contrary, nothing stops them from getting outside work (it’s just not preferred, but then again it’s preferred that undergraduates don’t get outside work either and we all know that’s not possible for many of them). Conversely, York has it wrong on the contract faculty issue, as York refuses to allow long-time contract faculty to get tenured positions. The reasons are monetary, but if a professor keeps on receiving new contracts from the University, isn’t it clear that York should just keep them around forever anyway?

However, neither of those two issues are the primary reasons why both are still miles apart from a deal (and the bargaining table, it seems). The real issue is 2010. That’s the year CUPE is hoping all of its locals will have contracts ending so they can have a “co-ordinated” bargaining session with not just the universities but also the province. The goal is to orient the university TA’s in much the same manner as the elementary and secondary school teacher unions in Ontario having, in effect, one province-wide union. Thus, CUPE 3903 is demanding a two-year deal to ensure that they will have a seat at the province-wide bargaining with their brethren, while York is countering with a three-year settlement.

Amidst the knowledge of the length of this strike and the one in 2000, there is some justified fear that a lengthy province-wide shutdown will occur in a year and a half (which may be why York wants its deal to expire after 2010). Five schools already have contracts expiring in 2010- Ryerson, McMaster, Ottawa, Windsor and Brock- and four other schools (including York) are in bargaining in the hopes of getting a 2010 expiry. CUPE’s responses to the fears is that they’re going to use the opportunity to push for gains for all students, including undergrads. However, aside from a scant mention of a tuition freeze (but only if CUPE manage tuition protection for themselves), there’s little in the Ontario University Workers Co-ordinating Committee Action Plan document that speaks directly to undergrad needs, and a lot that speaks to CUPE members’ needs (to see the document itself, go here http://www.cupe.on.ca/aux_file.php?aux_file_id=870).

What you will see in the Action Plan- if you go to Page 8 of the section “Projects to Improve the Bargaining Committee” you’ll see an entire page devoted to the propaganda campaign they’ll unleash onto the unsuspecting student bodies of the universities. There, CUPE explains they’ll hold barbecues, pub nights, “exam de-stressors” and other student events to make them appear that they’re a student-friendly organization. However, there’s nothing honest about that intention, since CUPE is only going to be friendly to ensure that students don’t rally against them in the event of a strike. There’s only one word to describe an action like that: “sickening”. Just like this strike the students will be used as pawns, and there’s nothing “student-friendly” about that.

Of course, it’s not like York University can have a pass from criticism either. This is an institution that has been insalubrious ever since I stepped foot on the (faux) hallowed grounds of the Keele Campus that September day. It’s so bad that my brother and I often joked about York that it was “the University that taught logic but never used it”. Some of those examples are merely comical, such as York’s decisions to close underground passageways at night (when it is the coldest) or entirely; or York’s decision to design the school (reportedly) after a campus in Arizona (hence all the wind tunnels, which make sense in the searing desert heat but never in the dead of Canadian winter). Other examples are simply disturbing, such as the fact the only weapons of defence that York Security has are notepads (I know Voltaire once said “the pen is mightier than the sword” but I doubt *that* is what he meant) or the inexcusable decision by then York President Lorna Marsden to suspend Daniel Freeman-Maloy for three years simply because he used a megaphone. More recently, the University sat idly as reports of sexual assaults grew on campus, culminating in a disturbing “residence room invasion” and a creeper on campus during the last academic year.

So it’s no surprise that the “Tweedledee and Tweedledum” administration bungled the negotiation process here as well, despite also having noble intentions. On top of rejecting the entirely reasonable demand by CUPE that contract faculty have somewhat better job security, York’s many missteps have been calling for binding arbitration right from the start (as opposed to having fruitful negotiations) and “negotiating through the media”, providing a strawman version of CUPE’s demands to the press in the hopes of simply winning the Public Relations battle. The worst part is that the President of York, Mamdouh Shoukri, has been visibly absent throughout the whole ordeal, as if he thinks that not addressing the problem will make it go away. That sure isn’t a trait I’d want in my leader.

York’s Remediation Plan- released on December 18- also does not offer much hope for a quick settlement. Assignment due dates and/or exams cannot be scheduled (or rescheduled) until the course has had at least its second class after the strike ends, but that’s as much relief that students will get. The plan calls for a “maximum” (not minimum) 2.5 weeks of class time to make up for the remaining month that was left of the Fall semester and exams to be scheduled over 12 days. Allowing further compression is the ability for York to schedule classes on “virtual” days, meaning, for example, if a class normally meets only once a week it could meet another day of the week to fit its second class in. The real kicker is a provision calling for a Winter Semester to be no longer than 55 days (11 weeks of Monday-Friday classes), with an exam schedule that is also just a dozen days.

Doing the math, this provides a “best possible” end (including exams) to the 2008/09 year on May 8, if an agreement is reached right on January 5 (when York reopens from the Christmas break). This would allow a “normal” 13-week Summer schedule but there’s no reason why York wouldn’t shorten that either. The 2001 strike ended in mid-January, so if this strike also ends then (which I’ll place at January 16), the end of the Winter term (allowing it to start on a Monday) comes on May 22, necessitating the shortening of Summer by a week. To run two straight semesters of 55 days and a dozen day long exam period, the strike would need to be resolved no later than January 26. However, don’t forget that York’s Plan stated the last round of Fall classes would take place over a “maximum” of 2.5 weeks, not a minimum. Allowing for York’s “virtual day” provision, presumably classes could be held over just a week for a two-week exam period coupled with a 55-day Winter and Summer terms, meaning the latest date for the strike would be February 6 (so that the final “Fall week” could be on February 9 with exams on February 16-27). Based on the math, at the very least it’s hard to suggest that York would be willing to negotiate meaningfully until late January- if it doesn’t subvert the process by bringing in a “forced ratification vote”, the government (or both) first.

Those are the issues surrounding the strike. Tomorrow I will highlight what needs to be done to resolve this strike and ensure that this problem doesn’t happen again.

-DG

Brian Burke set to become new Leaf GM

Hockey’s worst-kept secret is going to be made a reality at 2PM (EST) in Toronto today, as former Anaheim Ducks, Vancouver Canucks and Hartford Whalers General Manager Brian Burke is set to become the new GM and President of the moribund Toronto Maple Leafs. Reports indicate that Burke will receive a lengthy contract from Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment that grants him “full autonomy” in player personnel matters, a deal similar to the one Bryan Colangelo signed to become GM of the MLSE-owned Toronto Raptors.

As a GM, Burke needs no introduction. His sole year as GM of the Hartford Whalers in 1992-93 was not noteworthy except for the drafting of Chris Pronger, but his star began to really take off when he took over the reins of the Vancouver Canucks in 1997. In six seasons, Burke took a similarly moribund Canucks team and transformed them into division champions, dethroning the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche for the Northwest Division title in 2003-04 after coming up short in 2002-03. In 2005, Burke assumed the same role for the Ducks, reviving the fortunes of the 2003 Cup Finalists and bringing the Stanley Cup to the Pacific Coast in 2007 after a five game rout of the Ottawa Senators. So it comes as no surprise that when the Leafs not so secretly began to court Burke that excitement began to build in Leafland.

The first question that arose in Toronto after the news broke is what kind of team Burke is going to build. This one is murky. There was the thought that since the Ducks won the 2007 Stanley Cup with a rough-and-tumble approach that he would do the same in Toronto but the Ducks had already assembled that kind of team in the years previously and Burke just added to it, since Burke didn’t especially go out of his way to acquire big players. Furthermore, the Canucks weren’t known for being an overtly gritty bunch, since their top forwards were primarily finesse players (the Sedin twins, Markus Naslund, Mattias Ohlund, Brendan Morrison). One aspect does stick out in both teams and that is speed- Burke’s teams tended to be very quick and offensively minded, with strong puck-moving defencemen. A bit of that nucleus already exists in Toronto, with the existence of Tomas Kaberle and Anton Strahlman on the backend and up front with the likes of newcomer Lee Stempniak and Jason Blake. The Leafs do lack that punishing, “shutdown” defender right now but Luke Schenn seems poised to eventually become that defenceman in the future.

The second question is one that leaves no doubt- how well Burke is going to do. There is no hint of a doubt in my mind that Burke will restore the Leafs to relevancy. Critics have pointed out the Cup-winning Ducks team was already essentially assembled when Burke took over, but they miss the fact that Burke added three key elements to that Cup run during his tenure- Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Francois Beauchemin. Yes, Niedermayer was likely to sign with Anaheim anyway because he had a desire to play with his brother Rob; and Pronger essentially fell into his lap because Mr. Pronger couldn’t stand up to the Mrs., but the Beauchemin deal was an astute one. In one of the greatest swindles of recent memory, Burke dealt the declining Sergei Fedorov to the Columbus Blue Jackets early in 2005-06 for the rights to Beauchemin, who only blossomed into the perfect compliment to Pronger, a bruising defenceman who just happened to have a cannon from the point. There are blunders from his days in Anaheim (for example, the Mathieu Schnieder deal he was forced to make because he mismanaged the salary cap), but Burke’s innovation led to the Ducks’ ultimate victory.

The bigger quarry into Burke’s skill is his days with the Canucks. In the early 1990s, the Canucks were NHL powers, being division winners in 1992-93 and Cup Finalists in 1993-94, but then fell on hard times, becoming the NHL’s worst team by 1997-98. In three short years, Burke had the Canucks back in the playoffs, pulling off three major deals in the process. First, he dealt the declining Trevor Linden and Alexander Mogilny to the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils (respectively) for Bryan McCabe and Todd Bertuzzi (from the Islanders) and Morrison (from the Devils) late in 1997-98. Then, midway through the 1998-99 season, he traded the disgruntled Pavel Bure to the Florida Panthers in a package of players that netted him Ed Jovanovski. Finally, on Draft Day 1999, he sent McCabe to the Chicago Blackhawks to land the third overall draft pick, allowing him to simultaneously announce the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin. Coupled with the already-present Naslund and Ohlund, those players served as the core of a Canucks team that almost overnight became a Stanley Cup contender. What kept the Canucks from converting on their full potential was his failure to land a goaltender, but if there was any question that Burke couldn’t build a team “from scratch” (as he had to in Vancouver and will in Toronto), all you have to do is look at the Canucks and see the answer.

Whether or not the Leafs will win the Cup with Burke at the helm will depend on how patient Leaf fans will be (who knows after what will likely be 41 seasons without the Cup) and how much autonomy Burke will actually receive from the meddling MLSE (who seemed to stop caring after the Leafs became a playoff team during the Pat Quinn and the first Cliff Fletcher administrations). However, there’s no question that Burke brings with him a winning attitude and a knack for finding skill that few of his peers can match, which is only going to be refreshing in victory-starved Leafland.

-DG

On the front page of the Alliston Herald

This was on the front page of the Hallowe'en edition of the Alliston Herald:
























(Click on the picture or go here to see it larger.)

Note the caption: "The streets of Tottenham were filled with some scary characters Saturday during the Frightfully Fun family event". Oh man, those kids sure give me the shivers...

Seriously, who approved this photo and caption? This is just a terrible editing job.

-DG

The Check Swing That Said “101 Years”

Two outs in the bottom of the ninth. No men on, the Chicago Cubs down 3-1 and 2-0 in the National League Division Series to the upstart Los Angeles Dodgers and their leader, Alfonso Soriano, is up to bat, having been reduced to his last swing after taking two strikes from new Dodger closer Jonathan Broxton. Soriano knows that the next strike ends his season and the hopes of millions of Cubs fans who thought 100 years of misery were over after the Cubs posted baseball’s best overall record. However, at 0-2, conventional wisdom always calls for the batter to swing at anything resembling a strike, but doing that may produce a flyout or a tapper that accomplishes nothing. Caught in this lurch, Soriano offers a half swing to a Broxton pitch headed wide, but the swing went forward enough for umpire Brian Runge to conclude that Soriano did in fact swing and miss at the pitch. Strike Three. Game Over. 101 years now (at least) of misery.

It wasn’t supposed to end this way. The Cubs finished 2008 with a 97-64 record (one game against the Houston Astros did not need to be made up) and were due to face a Dodgers team that, even after acquiring Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake in late July, was still figured to be a vastly inferior team. It was the first time Chicago had the best record in baseball since the World Series year of 1908, and thus the Cubs figured to be one of the favourites for the title (I contend it was the Los Angeles Angels’ to lose, but that’s an entirely different matter). Instead, it was manager Joe Torre and the Dodgers completing the improbable sweep, leaving Cubs fans to wonder just what might have been.

The immediate response to such a loss is to look at the games themselves and examine why. This leaves no shortage of answers, from leadoff man Soriano’s inability to get on base (only one hit for the entire series), shaky Cubs fielding (especially in Game 2, when all four infielders committed an error) to being just flat outplayed by the Dodgers. Los Angeles, compared to Chicago, always got the hit they needed when they needed it, getting production throughout the order and having pitching that kept the Chicago batters fishing the entire series. The Cubs were out-managed too, as Torre’s double steal in the second inning of Game 2 led to the errors that allowed five runs to score and put that game out of reach. Torre also always found a hitter or a pitcher to get him out of a jam, whereas Cubs manager Lou Piniella tried and did very little to get out of his jams (where was Reed Johnson (who could also be a leadoff man), for one?). However, none of this even comes close to being the reason why the Cubs ultimately failed- the pressure the fans put on their team to finally end whatever curse they’re spouting this week.

Let’s do a mind exercise. It’s 2003 and both the Cubs and the Boston Red Sox- whose own futility at that point reminded those of the Cubs- are in their respective league championship series. Both have a chance to reach the World Series and end decades of misery. We all remember what happened to both- the Red Sox lost on a dramatic walk-off home run by Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees, while the Cubs let “Bartman” get to their heads. Both wound up losing their series, decreasing further the already low patience level their fanbase had with the teams.

The response in Boston was fairly swift. Manager Grady Little was canned following the 2003 loss, being replaced by former Philadelphia Phillies manager Terry Francona. The move definitely looked odd at the time, as Francona’s pedigree wasn’t very high (his managerial experience didn’t stretch beyond the four he had in Philadelphia and he never had a winning season with the Phillies during that time), but it paid enormous dividends since, as we know, Boston won the 2004 and 2007 World Series without dropping a single game (the first manager in baseball history to do so). Francona, relatively new to the Red Sox situation (being mostly a low-profile National Leaguer his entire career) and overall displaying a calm demeanour, never seemed to let any of the Curse of the Bambino stuff get to him. That rubbed off onto his players- the “Idiots” they called themselves- who finally realized all the potential they had in being arguably the best unit of Red Sox ever assembled.

The Cubs, however, went a different direction. 2003 manager Dusty Baker was allowed to continue managing until his team imploded (again) in 2006, after which Piniella replaced him. Piniella, unlike Baker, has a World Series championship to his credit, winning in 1990 with the Cincinnati Reds. He is also the Seattle Mariners’ all-time best manager, being the only Mariner manager (of two or more years) to have a winning record and the only one to guide Seattle to the playoffs. His track record alone suggests that he is right for the job, but the loss here to the Dodgers leaves some concerns.

Let’s not forget, “Sweet Lou” is an abrasive personality and is very emotional. There’s no need to get into his many tirades because they’re all common knowledge, but in this series against the Dodgers it appears his demeanour may have gotten the better of him and his team. Like the rest of his dugout, Piniella was openly flustered, often displaying an incredulous look on his face as if to suggest he just knows his Cubs team is cursed. You rarely ever saw Piniella yelling words of encouragement to his team or even just being calm, which may very well be part of his personality but it’s certainly not going to ease the nerves of any of the players who are also feeling the pressure of winning one for the Cubs fans. Factoring into this is Piniella’s experience (especially with the Cubs’ arch-rival Reds), which means he is very well versed in the Cubs’ problems and has every reason to feel the pressure bestowed upon the Loveable Losers.

Thus, what’s needed in Cubland is a change in attitude. The Red Sox won since they stopped pressuring themselves in 2004 (a direct result of Francona’s usually clam demeanour, even when he’s in trouble) and the Cubs need to do the same thing. Piniella may never actually be calm, but it would behove him to start having a little more fun. You don’t relieve the pressure of frustration by being frustrated yourself- that just breeds more frustration. Furthermore- and this is more “down the road” than next year- it would also behove the Cubs to hire an upstart manager after Piniella, since that manager’s relative inexperience would mean he really wouldn’t know- or care- about the Cubs’ difficulties at all. Francona changed the entire attitude surrounding the Red Sox dugout whereas Piniella just seems to be upholding the Cubs’ status quo, and that is the difference between the two teams’ successes.

It may be too early to give up on the Piniella Era already, but the early returns haven’t been as great as they could be and that is down to the pressures the team is constantly applying to themselves. Until the team realizes that and changes the whole atmosphere surrounding the clubhouse, it could very well be another 101 years before a championship- if it ever comes.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball 2008-09 Regular Season Edition

It's that time of year again- hockey season, the only great part about winter. Thus, it means another edition of my hockey scrying ritual where the crystal orb reveals all and shows you who will win the Stanley Cup- all worked out from the start of the season to the Mid-June Classic. It's too big to fit here on the blog, so I have conveniently provided a link for your enjoyment. Enjoy!

The Regular Season Preview

-DG

DG's Quick Hits- July 15, 2007

• Let me begin by starting with the biggest news in archaeology- or, I should say, “archaeology”, because the document is pretty sketchy- the Hazon Gabriel, or “Gabriel’s Revelation”. It’s a stone tablet with 87 lines written in ink and dubbed a “Dead Sea Scroll on Stone” and has actually been known to us for a few years now but gained prominence this week because professor Israel Knohl apparently translated the document to reveal apparent parallels to Jesus Christ. Knohl believes the previously un-translated lines 80-81 have the Angel Gabriel command an unknown “Prince of Princes” to “live again” in three days, which he says is smoking gun evidence for his own theory that resurrection stories existed in Judaism before Jesus did (confirmation bias, no?). News agencies- who obviously haven’t read the document- picked it up and contended it was decidedly Christian, never mind that the document talks more about a valiant fallen warrior with a fire-and-brimstone approach that is decidedly un-Jesus like. Furthermore, we don’t even know where the document came from- Ada Yardeni, the first scholar to write about the document, picked it up from a collector who stated he bought it from a Jordanian antiquities dealer (so who knows where the thing really came from or even if it’s real). Of course, that’s not the worst part about the whole hullabaloo- the worst part is that this document is incredibly insignificant. Christians are going to shout about how this confirms that Jesus fulfilled prophecies while those who believe Jesus was a myth contend this is further fuel to the fire given there’s just another document for the myth-writers to copy from (resurrection stories are plentiful before Jesus, even in Judaism). Meanwhile, I’m just shaking my head at the nonsense over a document giddy scholars with an agenda clearly are failing to “check” simply because it has religious significance. If that doesn’t detail what’s wrong with Biblical Archaeology as a field, I don’t know what does.
• I was planning on writing a huge analysis of the Hazon Gabriel only to realize that I wasn’t going to say anything that hadn’t already been said on the blogosphere. I will say that my first thought when I heard of the Hazon Gabriel is the James Ossuary, another document without provenance or even significance that gets more than its due because it’s a religious document. Now, you may recall that the Ossuary- which apparently has the words “James the son of Joseph the brother of Jesus”- is almost universally proclaimed as a forgery while the Hazon is generally accepted as real, but the Ossuary does share the critical trait that even if it was real it is insignificant. All three names were common at the time, plus there’s not a single document that ties the Ossuary with James the Just (such as a letter that details a pilgrimage to James’ tomb, something that would have happened to such an important figure). As another scholar once put it, the Ossuary might as well have read “Tom the son of Dick the brother of Harry”. Names mean nothing unless there’s a bridge to the important character and the Ossuary does not do that. The fact that it’s fake makes it even more dubious, but it didn’t need to get that far for it to be insignificant- just like the Hazon Gabriel.
• Switching gears is the saga involving the “is-he-or-is-he-not” retired Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre. Favre told FOX News earlier today that he had jumped the gun on retirement and that the Packers had “held him hostage” in forcing him to make a decision earlier than he had to. He also contended that the team expressed its desire to “move on” (in formally making Aaron Rogers, Favre’s young backup, their starter) and should allow Favre to do the same, but Green Bay is unwilling to release Favre and potentially see him start for the Minnesota Vikings or Chicago Bears, both of whom have quarterback issues. It is clear that the Packers hold all the cards, since if Favre applies for reinstatement he must return to the Packers’ active roster where he is signed through next season. It is difficult to pinpoint just who is right in this story, since Favre’s wrangling isn’t fair to Rogers (who’s waited long enough for his well-deserved shot) or the Packers (whose plans shouldn’t be held hostage by one player); but at the same time Favre’s pedigree and legacy calls for a happy exit, even if it’s with another team, and the Packers should not stand in the way of that. One thing’s for sure: if this truly is the way Favre’s career will end, it’ll be an even uglier end than Cory Webster’s interception that currently stands as Favre’s last professional pass and that may be the most unfortunate part about the whole ordeal. Here’s hoping that Favre gets his graceful exit, wherever it may be and that both parties resolve this amicably because Favre- and football- deserves no less.
• Swinging to football north of the border is Rich “Stumpler” Stubler and his quarterback controversy on his Toronto Argonauts that he won’t acknowledge exists. At the start of the season, pundits all agreed that Kerry Joseph- the reigning Canadian Football League MVP- and Michael Bishop would form by far the best CFL quarterbacking tandem of recent vintage, giving the Argos that extra versatility and insurance two great quarterbacks gives you. Following an embarrassing 40-29 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos and both quarterbacks’ inability to pass the ball to their own players and it’s clear that Stubler’s inability to commit to one quarterback (Stubler refuses to name a starter and rotates quite liberally) is dragging the entire team down. Not only that, but the Argos have given up 86 points in their three games this season (an average of almost 28 points a game) meaning the former defensive whiz has lost touch on the other side of the ball as well. Fortunately for Argo fans they’re in a division with the equally pathetic and confused Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the often inept Hamilton Tiger-Cats but that’s small solace for a team capable of so much more.
• Speaking of confused, there’s the Tampa Bay Rays, losers of seven straight games after a 5-2 decision saw them get swept by the hilariously inept Cleveland Indians in Cleveland. The Rays were once three and a half games up on the Boston Red Sox for first in the American League East and had led the Sox by seven in the loss column but are now a half game back of Boston (albeit at 55-39 they’re still one up on the loss column, as Boston sits at 57-40). Writers baffled by how the previously inept Rays could have a season like they were having could have the slide they are now having but the fact remains that Tampa Bay, being a young team, were prone to this kind of a funk. I’m not willing to write off the Rays just yet because slides happen in baseball, but you just had to wonder if the bubble is starting to burst. Hopefully it’s not…the Rays are too good a story for it to go to waste.
• Of course, Tampa Bay’s success has to leave the Toronto Blue Jays scratching their heads- how could a team that was once a perennial bad joke make few changes in the off-season and now be battling for first place with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees; while Toronto- who was supposed to be up there- battles for last? At this stage of the season, I may just say that Toronto’s just not as good as they were made out to be. Outside of Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, the Jays simply lack the elite level playmakers that the likes of Boston and New York possess, and Toronto’s inability to draft well has cost them the opportunity to build a sustainable product for the long haul. Sure, there’s “optimism” after the Jays climbed to within a game of .500 following a 4-1 win over the Yankees at the Sky Dome, but haven’t we been through this before? As Rhianna croons, in “Take A Bow”, “this just sounds like a rerun- please/What else is on?”
• Still, though, Toronto’s 15-year absence from the playoffs pales in comparison to the perennial lovable losers the Chicago Cubs, whose fans have lost count the amount of times they’ve felt “optimism”. What, then, is there to suggest that this latest version of the Cubs- who own baseball’s best record- won’t live up to expectations and find some way to bottom out? However, there’s more guiding Chicago than just blind optimism- the Cubs really are good, having that all-important blend of power and speed and (after acquiring Rich Harden) pitching that makes for a championship level baseball team. They’re still not a slam dunk for the title however, since the Boston Red Sox- who also share that important combination- are still very much in the mix and you’d have to think the defending champions are still the team to beat this season. Funny that we now think of the Red Sox, formerly also lovable losers, as the Goliath to the Cubs’ David, but sports has a funny way of doing things like that. It’s still too early to write that kind of story, but what a story it will be if it actually comes to fruition.
• Last but not least is the Continental Hockey League (KHL) creating a stir after Ufa, one of its teams, signed Nashville Predators star Alexander Radulov to a contract despite the fact Radulov was already under contract in Nashville. Just a day previously the KHL- formed as a “rival” league to the National Hockey League- reached an accord with the NHL not to poach players under contract, but Ufa had done just that. It’s still unclear how the story will eventually unfold, but this development is certainly not positive for hockey. I’ve contended that the NHL is mismanaged and is vulnerable to a rival league, but the KHL does itself no favours in looking desperate by wilfully ignoring contractual obligations. Not only that but in doing so the KHL- whose clubs complained of “athletic terrorism” when the Pittsburgh Penguins got Evgeni Malkin to leave Metallurg Magnitogorsk- shows itself as hypocritical. Hopefully, though, the Radulov experience will bring the NHL out of its shell and force it to start working with the IIHF more, if not actually form a real international club competition that hockey so desperately needs and deserves. There’s a whole other world of hockey the insular flag-waving Canadians have consistently failed to acknowledge and it’s time they got a chance to witness it; but the KHL- like the NHL- needs to start behaving first.

-DG

A Wind of Change at Wimbledon

Perhaps I was just a little late in recognizing it.

When Basel, Switzerland's Roger Federer was upset by Serb Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semi-final, whispers began to surface that the previously unbeatable Federer was no longer the creme de la creme in the tennis world. Those whispers only grew louder after Federer was denied a third straight time for the overall Grand Slam in the French Open Final against Spaniard Rafael Nadal, who demolished Federer in three sets in losing just three games and holding Federer to 6-0 in the third set, the first person since Byron Black in 1999 to hold Federer to a 6-0 set. Given the ages of Federer (he will be 27 in August), Nadal (22) and Djokovic (21), pundits bored of Federer's dominance were only too eager to pass the torch onto Federer's younger opponents, openly declaring that the end was (finally) here for the unbeatable.

At the time, I didn't really think the story was that special. First of all, Federer wasn't going to win all the time, so the fact that Federer lost in the Australian Open shouldn't have been a monumental surprise (surprise, yes, but- for the lack of a better word- flukey at best). Second of all, despite the fact that Nadal won so convincingly at the French and had now beaten Federer in three straight French Open Finals, Nadal still hadn't beaten Federer in any other Grand Slam (nor won another Grand Slam title). NBC's Mary Carillo pointed to Nadal's class in not overtly celebrating after the French victory (and don't get me wrong, it *was* classy), but she failed to point out then that Nadal knew he'd need another Grand Slam title before people would see him as a legitimate challenger to Federer (so there really was no point in crazily jumping around). Besides, Federer had yet to play on grass- his favoured surface- so the jury really should have still been out until Wimbledon concluded.

Well, it did, and Nadal finally got over his hump. In an epic match that featured two rain delays, a match time of nearly five hours with the latest conclusion ever to a Wimbledon final (9:20PM local time, over seven hours after the scheduled start time), Nadal defeated Federer for his first Wimbledon championship 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-7 (8), 9-7. John McEnroe, commenting for NBC, called it "the best match I've ever seen" which is an understatement as the match featured more drama than prime time television does in an entire year. Federer looked to have swung momentum his way after fighting off a 2-0 deficit in sets and match point on Nadal's serve in the fourth set, only for Nadal to secure the vital break in the fifth set (at 7-7 no less) and finally swing the match back his way. As McEnroe's broadcasting colleague, Ted Robinson, noted "these two bring out the Superman in each other" as the match featured the best both players had to offer: Nadal's impeccable ability to return just about anything and Federer's ability to ferociously pound winners and aces at a blinding pace. The match was also very evenly contested- Federer was only broken four times, while Nadal was broken just once. The match really came down to wits and, at the end of the day, Nadal just had more, but only barely. It was the kind of match where you didn't want to see anyone lose, with the match playing to expectations- the two best players in the world providing their very best stuff and ultimately producing the very best match.

The question now is "where do we go from here?" For Nadal, the answer is pretty simple. First of all, he can finally shake off the "clay-court specialist" tag in proving he can win on other surfaces. Second of all, having claimed his fifth Grand Slam title at the age of 22 (when Federer had just one at the same age), Nadal is well on his way to surpassing Federer as the world No. 1, which one would have figured to be just a matter of time given the two players' ages. Whether or not Nadal can get to Federer's total of 12 Grand Slam titles depends on how much the 21-year-old Djokovic develops (he too is an all-court player like Federer is and could develop a similar rivalry with Nadal that Federer currently enjoys) and if Nadal can hold off injury concerns, especially with his knees (his high-energy style has already led to a few injuries and that can be trouble in his older days). However, there is little doubt that on current form Nadal is the best player in the world and given how Nadal can make adjustments (he did serve and volley a little towards the end of the match) one suspects Nadal is primed for a real takeoff.

For Federer the situation is a bit more murky. It's not the end, but it is now getting close. At 27, there still is a lot left in the tank, albeit the engine operates a little slower now than it did in the past. There was going to be a year where Federer was going to lose because it's impossible to maintain that kind of form forever (players adapt and Federer is human after all). For perspective, Pete Sampras- who played a similar style to Federer and is compared to Federer as tennis' greatest player- won his last Wimbledon title at 29 and his final Grand Slam title at 31, so Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam titles is still very much attainable (Federer currently sits at 12). Plus, the loss may just spur Federer on to prove that this was just a minor dip and not the start of a real decline- he may have fallen back on Wimbledon knowing his past success, and while he certainly didn't "give up" this year, a loss may just shock out any feelings of complacency that he may have developed before this year. Besides, a champion like Federer doesn't stay down for long.

One thing is for certain though- tennis won today. All those hoping for a more competitive men's field finally got it as Federer now has a legitimate rival in Nadal (and maybe Djokovic if he ever gets his act together), meaning that these next few years the top will be as hotly contested as it ever was. It means that there's more matches akin to today's Final up ahead as the battle for greatness heats up and at the end of the day, the one who stands on the top is definitely going to deserve it.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball: Stanley Cup Final Edition

At first, it seemed like the Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins were on a date with destiny by cruising out of their respective Conference Finals, both having amassed a 3-0 series lead. Then the Dallas Stars- Detroit’s opponent- suddenly found its defensive game and pushed the Wings to a Game Six, but the Stars ultimately didn’t have anything left in the tank in falling 4-1 in the deciding game. No matter, it still sets up an incredible Stanley Cup Final, featuring two of the game’s premier offensive teams with loads of tantalizing storylines and intrigue. This will be Detroit’s first Final since 2002 while Pittsburgh arrives for the first time since 1992 (both times the respective team won).

So, with the Stanley Cup Final set it’s time to have another look into my magical sphere and tell you who will win the Great Silver Chalice.

(Playoff record: 9-5)

W1 Detroit Red Wings vs. E2 Pittsburgh Penguins

FORWARD

There may not be a more dynamic group of forwards in the National Hockey League today than those that skate for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Everyone knows about Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marian Hossa, but behind them is a deep and competent cast of forwards that causes nightmares for the opposing coaching staff. Ryan Malone provides a lot of the jam on the Penguins’ top-two forward lines, Petr Sykora has revived his career playing without the pressure of having to be a top forward (like he had been required to as a New Jersey Devil) and Jordan Staal may be one of, if not the, best two-way forward in the NHL today. Plus, with checking line players such as Pascal Dupuis and Maxime Talbot, Michel Therrien’s club boasts the strongest cast of forwards in the National Hockey League today. The Red Wings aren’t too shabby on their end either- you may have heard of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg- but the Wings get more of their offence from the back end, not the front end. Still, there’s enough for Therrien and the Penguins to worry about, from the speedy Mikael Samuelsson, the feisty Daniel Cleary and the rejuvenated Johan Franzen. However, pound for pound, the Penguins have more here than Detroit does. EDGE PENGUINS

DEFENCE

This is where the Wings’ vaunted offence really takes flight- from the backend. No team in the NHL can boast the same amount of mobile, puck-moving rearguards that Detroit can boast. Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom would be No. 1 defencemen on any NHL team but they both play for the same club. If that wasn’t enough, Andreas Lilja and Brett Lebda provide the same spark lower on the depth chart, while ageless wonder Chris Chelios provides stability when he’s needed. For their part, Pittsburgh can also display some talent on the back end, including Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar (who will be playing in his second Cup Final), and the bruising Brooks Orpik and Hal Gill should allow the Penguins to rough up the diminutive Wings skaters. Having said that, the Wings’ group is more talented as a whole than Pittsburgh’s, even if only slightly. EDGE RED WINGS

GOALTENDING

On paper, Marc-Andre Fleury would get the nod over Detroit’s Chris Osgood, but Osgood is a former Cup winner (2002) and Fleury has yet to play a Cup Final game. Both goaltenders boast similar numbers (.931 save percentage for Osgood, .938 for Fleury; 1.60 goals-against-average for Osgood and 1.70 for Fleury) so it’s a dead heat when it comes to the stats. However, Osgood has benefited from a Wings defence that doesn’t allow a lot of shots and while Detroit’s defence is very sound, they haven’t played a team that mixes it up offensively like the Penguins do. Fleury, on the other had, has had to face high-powered offences during the playoffs and has routinely come out with the upper hand. Therefore, if there is a team with the better goaltending, it’s Pittsburgh. EDGE PENGUINS

COACHING

Neither coach has a lot of experience in the playoffs, but the Wings’ Mike Babcock does have Stanley Cup Final experience, having led the Cinderella Anaheim Mighty Ducks to a Game Seven loss against the New Jersey Devils in 2003, while Therrien had only won one playoff round until this season (2002 first round with a Montreal Canadien). It could also be argued that Therrien’s success owes more to the talent that he has with him than his own abilities, but Therrien’s ability to keep the Penguins on track after some very difficult games (such as the Game Four loss to the New York Rangers) cannot be underestimated. It also bears mentioning that it has been under Therrien that the young Penguins have reached their full potential, since the team went nowhere with Ed Olczyk, the team’s original post-lockout coach. That said, if there was a coach whose system owes itself to his team’s success, it’s Babcock’s, since Detroit’s puck-possession system is the key reason why they’re even in the Cup Final. Therefore, Babcock and all his experience get the nod. EDGE RED WINGS

INTANGIBLES

Ostensibly one would look at Pittsburgh’s sparkling 12-2 record in the post-season and conclude that the Cup is theirs to lose, but historically teams that have stormed their way through the postseason (such as the 1997 Philadelphia Flyers and the 2007 Ottawa Senators, both of whom only lost three games before the Cup Final) wind up getting overmatched come the Cup Final. The Wings’ path to the Cup Final hasn’t been difficult in of itself, but the Wings have had to battle more adversity than Pittsburgh has in this post-season, needing to survive a scare against the Nashville Predators (who tied their first round series after falling behind 2-0 and pushed Game Five to overtime on a last-minute goal) and having to dispose of a Dallas Stars team that might have come back from a 3-0 series deficit after pushing Detroit to a Game Six. Thus, the question must be asked- will the Penguins be able to come through in a war? This series won’t be easy, and the Penguins’ ability to handle that situation will go a long way if Pittsburgh will end its 16-year Cup drought.

THE SKINNY

Everyone you talk to insists this will be a series and there’s no argument from the orb. Detroit’s deep cast of defencemen cancels out the Penguins’ deep cast of forwards, while Pittsburgh’s goaltending edge is cancelled out by the Wings’ coaching acumen and the Pens’ youthful enthusiasm is cancelled out by Detroit’s experience. When the orb originally predicted this series in the Conference Final, the edge went to Pittsburgh, but that was before the Penguins coasted to the Cup Final and the Wings had to fend off a Stars team that refused to quit. Therefore, after a long and tight series- but one full of goals and excitement- it’ll be capped off by a Game Seven overtime goal by Johan Franzen…just because he always seems to get those kinds of goals.

RESULT: Wings 4, Penguins 3

-DG

Inter Repeat As Champions

A brace from Zlatan Ibrahimović just after the hour mark sealed a 2-0 win over Parma and third consecutive scudetto (second on the field) for Inter Milan on Sunday, giving the Nerrazzuri their 16^th title overall. Inter had blown two other chances to wrap up the title in losing to AC Milan at the beginning of the month and drawing 2-2 with Siena at home the week before and bringing up painful memories of the 2002 collapse, but all was forgotten after Ibrahimović- who returned from a knee injury and came on as a substitute- fired Inter Milan home and condemned the once powerful Parma to a spell in Italy’s Serie B.

This title victory went differently than it did last season. Last season, Inter sewed up the title with five games remaining and wound up winning by 22 points, but despite the impressive display (and the fact the title would have stood without the Calciopoli-imposed point deductions), pundits found reason to complain about the title because Juventus was forced to spend the season in Serie B and Milan started the year docked eight points. This season, Juventus was back in Serie A and no one started the year with point penalties, so none of the complaints from last year would have any merit. If Inter’s success last year raised any doubts, this season’s victory would completely dispel them.

It certainly wasn’t easy and for a while it did look like 2002 would rear its ugly head again. On February 16, a 2-1 win against Livorno gave Inter an 11-point edge over second-place AS Roma in the standings, but a series of reverses (including losses to Napoli, Milan and Juventus and draws against Siena and Genoa) saw Inter pick up only 22 points over their next 14 games and reduce the margin to one point before the victory over Parma. The collapse was shocking but it wasn’t completely unexpected- Inter was hit with a barrage of injuries to a number of key players late in the season (Walter Samuel, Luis Figo, Ivan Cordoba, Luis Figo, Ibrahimović), and nor was the ultimate margin of victory and Roma (who were second last season) had considerably improved themselves from last season and should have been figured for a tighter race with Inter. It was also not a race without controversy. In two games Inter benefited from penalties, both for handball offences- one to Parma’s Fernando Couto late in the reverse fixture (that one deserved) and one to Empoli’s Ighli Vannuchi (undeserved, albeit close and that mistake was down to sightlines)- plus a pro-Juventus publication put their team (surprise, surprise) on top of Serie A after all the “refereeing corrections”; but any complaints about refereeing bias ignored the fact Empoli was also awarded a penalty against Inter and the fact Inter played a man down for five games during this season (including against both Parma and Empoli). The complaints bore a not-so-subtle hint of jealousy and perhaps the cries of conspiracy were expected in the wake of Calciopoli, but there’s no reason to think Inter got an undue advantage from the referees.

The race was one of several great storylines for 2007-08. There was Napoli, back in Serie A after a lengthy absence, finishing in a respectable ninth and posting impressive wins over Inter and Milan in the process. Then there was Fiorentina, who would have qualified for the Champions’ League last season had it not been for the point penalties, managing to qualify for the CL despite losing Luca Toni in the offseason (because, peculiarly enough, he wanted to play in the CL). Following that was Roma, staying right with Inter through the final stages despite having less than half the star power Inter (and several other Serie A sides) had. The rise of those two teams suggests that Serie A is once again reaching the level of parity it had seen in the era of the Six Sisters (Inter, Lazio, Milan, Juventus, Roma and Parma) from the turn of the millennium and can no longer be said to be dominated by a few teams (unlike in England where it is firmly in the hands of either Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United or Chelsea). Finally- once you look past the bitter fanbase- there was Juventus, who had the roughest of stretches in 2006 and 2007, playing with the kind of heart and determination that was downright inspirational. The team may have had a disappointing summer in failing to acquire any high profile players but they more than made up for it with their dogged work ethic and overachieving with a team that was a shell of their pre-Calciopoli selves. Here’s hoping La Vecchia Signora can restore the pride in the team their previous administration so wrongly took away from them.

As for the disappointments, one can’t help but start with Milan, the defending CL champions but bottoming out in the Round of 16 to Arsenal and falling to fifth in Serie A after a 3-1 thumping at the hands of upstart Napoli. The result was shocking but those in the know saw a Milan team whose defence was now firmly over the hill and is in desperate need of rebuilding. Empoli, the small-market story of 2006-07 (finishing sixth with a club from a city of only 45,000), never quite got anything going this season and slumped badly to the relegation zone. Palermo and Lazio, who had been Serie A powers a year before, did not suffer similar fates but similarly slumped, dropping to 11^th and 12^th respectively after incredibly inconsistent years. Last but not least on the team side is Sampdoria, a side who could have been tagged as a sleeper outfit after acquiring the talented (but temperamental) striker Antonio Cassano, who stayed true to form with 10 goals in 22 games and receiving a five-game ban after throwing his shirt at the referee after being sent off against Torino. The rest of the team struggled to maintain their form (especially early in the season) and although they did nail down a UEFA Cup berth, Sampdoria could have achieved much more. Key to their struggles was their record against the top five teams, as Sampdoria managed only eight points in ten games (1-4-5, winning only against Milan). There is plenty to build on still, but the pressure is on the 1991 scudetto winners to prove that they can be contenders and not pretenders. Finally, chief among all the disappointments is the death of Gabriele Sandri, a DJ and Lazio fan caught by a stray bullet from a police officer trying to break up a fight with Juventus ultras. The death cast a pall on an otherwise great season and brought up scary reminders of Filippo Raciti’s death just months before, showing that anti-hooliganism in Italian soccer still has some work to do. Hopefully Sandri’s death can serve as a reminder that it is “just a game” and one hopes that the relative quiet one saw in the 2008 portion of the schedule is a sign of things to come.

In the end, this was Inter Milan’s year to shine, but theirs wasn’t the only story. If last year was dull and marred by the Calciopoli penalties, this year proved that the sizzle is back in Italian soccer and that there is- finally- a lot of positives to look forward to in the coming years. See you in 2008-09.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball: Conference Final Edition

Now that the Conference Semi-finals are *finally* over (a nod to the epic marathon the Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks provided us in the Stars’ 2-1, quadruple overtime victory in Game Six that ended San Jose’s season), it’s time to look into my shiny orb and tell you who will be in the Stanley Cup Final- and ultimately who will win it.

(Semi-final record: 2-2, Overall record: 7-5)

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #5 Dallas Stars

The way Game Six was going, one had wondered if this series would begin at all, but Brenden Morrow ended all speculation of that by scoring midway through the quadruple overtime session to oust the Sharks. The result can be characterized as an upset since no one believed Dallas could have defeated San Jose, but as the series played out the Stars were more than just the equals to the Sharks- they were, in fact, superior. At least at San Jose’s game- the dump-and-chase, clog-the-middle, grind-it-out-and-overpower-them type system. It’s small wonder why Morrow- one of the best power forwards in the NHL today- torched the Sharks with four goals in six games (and two others called off) to single-handedly lead the Stars past San Jose. He’ll probably have a field day with the Wings’ smaller forwards and will appreciate the fact he- and the rest of his teammates- won’t have to face an elite goaltender (although Chris Osgood has been effective in that area for Detroit), but the Stars’ defensive system is going to have fits containing the Wings. The Sharks played a simple- maybe too simple- north-south game: the Wings are very adept at moving the puck laterally as well as forward with their mobile, puck-moving rearguards led by Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom and that is going to cause countless coverage problems. Plus, Detroit isn’t just Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg anymore- Johan Franzen, “The Mule”, can now be included in that elite group after breaking Gordie Howe’s mark for goals in a series with nine against Colorado (a mark Franzen set in four games- Howe needed all seven to pot eight). The Stars do have an equalizer in Marty Turco who has been stellar in this post-season, but if Turco thought the Game Six barrage was tough, he should wait for the siege the Wings will put on him. Dallas has the resources to keep the series close, but it’s Detroit’s series to lose.

Red Wings 4, Stars 3

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

Okay, so the Montreal Canadiens don’t have the same kind of firepower the Penguins have, the Flyers barely hung on to leads and suspect goaltending helped the Flyers’ goal-scoring against Montreal but make no mistake- Philadelphia deserves to be here and will give Pittsburgh a tougher test than some might realize. The Flyers- led by dynamic two-way forwards Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, offensive dynamo Daniel Briérè and emerging power forward R.J. Umberger- have the wheels to match up with the Penguins’ forward cast led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marian Hossa as well as the emerging Ryan Malone and the rejuvenated Petr Sykora. On defence, the Flyers’ defensive pairing of Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Cobourn has been a sparkplug with eleven assists between them (Timonen is tops with six) to counteract the Penguins’ Ryan Whitney who has five assists, while Pittsburgh’s normally sharpshooting defenceman Sergei Gonchar has gone cold with a single goal in this post-season. Not only that, neither team is great in the shutdown department, so expect the series to be free-flowing with a lot of lead changes. In goal, neither team has much of an edge- both Martin Biron and Marc-Andre Fleury are effective albeit not elite goaltenders, but Fleury does have the feather in his cap about being able to outplay New York Rangers netminder Henrik Lundqvist. Regardless, this is the Battle of Pennsylvania, and that by itself ensures that series is going to be close, as well as nasty- if Crosby and Malkin thought the Rangers were tough to handle wait until they see what the Flyers have brought for them: they’ll make Sean Avery & Co. seem like a cakewalk. This series will go down to the wire and it’s hard to predict a winner, but as I look into the orb, it faintly paints a picture of a Penguin, as Pittsburgh is playing a bit more cohesively and consistently than Philadelphia is and that is why they get the ultimate edge.

Penguins 4, Flyers 3

STANLEY CUP FINAL

W1 Detroit vs. E2 Pittsburgh

This will be the most talked about Cup series for years, featuring two teams that play wide-open, free-flowing styles that promise a Final series that will be extremely entertaining to watch and extremely compelling. Will this be Sid the Kid’s first Cup of many? Will the Wings finally be rewarded for the organization’s consistent excellence, having been to the playoffs every year since 1991? Which goaltender will buckle under the expected siege both teams are capable of producing? The teams match up considerably well, as the Wings’ mobile and offensively gifted rearguards counterbalance Pittsburgh’s edge at forward, even though both sides have adequate weaponry in the other area as well. The decider, though, is in goal- Fleury has been better this playoff year than Osgood has, and that is what is ultimately going to decide the Stanley Cup Final: Fleury has consistently shown that no matter what the score he can pull out the Penguins, while Osgood has had to rely on his dynamic offence to build him a lead he can only barely hold. The Wings will make it close and interesting, but it’s Pittsburgh’s year to hoist the Cup.

Penguins 4, Wings 3

-DG

"American Idol- President Edition"?

No no, I'm not talking about a singing competition for American presidents- I'm here to propose a new idea to decide the next president of the United States of America (if not every other elected official in the world).

See, with the knowledge that American Idol considerably outdraws the presidential race in terms of viewership and votes, it would naturally follow that maybe the two ideas should be combined as one. Instead of having to wait eight long months waiting for the Democrats and the Republicans to decide on which faceless robot will represent them and then wait three more long months to choose the drone whose rehearsed jabs were the least boring, why not open the entire race to every eligible contestant in America, have "judges" (maybe one from each political stream, or at least the major ones) whittle them down to 40 or so where eventually we'll vote them off until we figure out an overall winner- the President. Along the way we can expect the usual segments we love so much on Idol, such as the funny auditions (if you think awful singing is bad, think of the ideas some of the hopefuls will come up with...) as well as challenges to test the candidates on their speaking ability, their passion and their charisma, as well as how well versed they are in current events and issues. You could even throw in a segment for a "secret talent", like what is done on the Miss America pageant, because several Presidents had talents in something other than...wait, they had talents (Bill Clinton, for one, is a saxophone player).

Now, I understand the competition is fraught with problems because navigating through the milieu of ideas within the political spectrum is a lot harder than simply deciding who's got the best voice (we're talking about picking someone to run a country, where there can hardly be a consensus and which is more important a job than releasing an album that no one will buy anyway), but it's plain to me that democracy in the 21st century has lost a lot of its bite. Part of it has to do with the fact our society is just so comfortable to live in that there's hardly a pressing need to debate about how the country should go forward ("it ain't broke so don't fix it") but part of it also has to do with the fact the process just doesn't have any pizazz. The success of American Idol hinges on the fact that it's entertaining and while I don't think political decisions should be made on entertainment value alone, if the political process could appear to be "fun" (just like Idol) then maybe more would turn out to the polls because then it'd be worth watching- and following. Besides, if nothing else, it should serve as a reminder that as long as we have a lifeless process we'll have a lifeless leader- and I think that is an issue more pressing than any concern this "glamourization" may cause.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball- Round 2

What a finish.

In a first round that featured three Game 7’s (including one decided in overtime), six Game 6’s, three near comebacks from 3-1 down (the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks), lots of surprises (the Ducks’ ouster, the whipping of the Ottawa Senators and Dan Ellis of the Nashville Predators nearly ousting the Detroit Red Wings on his own) and eight overtime games, the National Hockey League’s Round of 16 in 2008 was a Round you just didn’t want to see end. Unfortunately it has to, but the great first round should set up a barnstormer of a Round 2 winding down to a fantastic finish in the Cup Final after a dud of 2007 playoff year (only one Game 7 and six Game 6’s out of all the playoff games).

It also means it’s time for another peak into my crystal orb (5-3 in Round 1) to tell you who will win the Stanley Cup.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Conference Semi-Finals

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

They may have both gotten the expected results, but both the Canadiens and the Flyers know they were lucky to escape from the first round after both nearly blew 3-1 series leads to the Boston Bruins and the Washington Capitals respectively, with the latter series not decided until Philadelphia’s Joffrey Lupul, quiet all series long, netted the overtime winner in Game 7. Neither team enters with a lot of confidence or a lot of answers, as the Flyers saw the Capitals beat them at their own game in outhitting Philadelphia and playing with a lot more energy and intensity and the Canadiens saw their power play suffer dramatically against Boston and goaltending sensation Carey Price turn into a sieve after his peewee level blunder gifted Glen Metropolit the Game 5-deciding goal. If there is a redeeming factor for both it is the fact Philadelphia is again playing a Capitals-like team in the fast, skilled Canadiens (albeit Montreal has more overall skill than Washington does) and Montreal knows that they beat the Flyers all four times during the regular season (including a 1-0 Price shutout on February 16). The Flyers also know that they possess the playoffs’ leading marksman (Daniel Briérè with six goals) and the Canadiens should get inspirational captain Saku Koivu back to full health as the series wears on. Now, when I first forecasted this series in the Round 1 predictions (based on the regular seasons, mind you), I saw a Philadelphia victory because the Canadiens are not as big as Philadelphia is, but after watching the two teams in the playoffs- and knowing that Koivu is returning for Montreal- the Canadiens appear to be the better team (especially if Alexei Kovalev comes back to form). The Flyers may still be bigger but the Canadiens showed they could be physical if they had to be, and despite how wobbly Price is, Price is a much better goaltender than Washington’s Cristobal Huet. Montreal might not score as much against a revitalized Martin Biron for Philadelphia (who should have enough juice to give Montreal a test), but by the end it’ll be Montreal moving on to Round 3.

Canadiens 4, Flyers 2

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers

Sidney Crosby on Broadway- another series I forecasted during the regular season edition but played now under incredibly different dynamics. Then I predicted a Rangers team where Henrik Lundqvist would defy the odds and steal the series from the heavily favoured Penguins, but after watching Crosby & Co. utterly dismantle the Ottawa Senators there’s just no way that I can see that happening now. The Rangers gained more notoriety in Round 1 after Sean Avery’s stick-waving in front of New Jersey Devils netminder Martin Brodeur caused the NHL to amend the rulebook, but the Devils- a shell of their former Stanley Cup-winning selves- were hardly overwhelmed by New York (despite the series scoreline), who played with more purpose throughout the series. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, saw Evgeni Malkin, greybeard Gary Roberts and (eventually) Marian Hossa emerge as a dynamic compliment to Crosby, which will pose match-up nightmares for Rangers’ coach Tom Renney. Meanwhile, all Penguins bench boss Michel Therrien has to worry about is Scott Gomez, the aging Brendan Shanahan and the moody Jaromir Jagr. Not only that, but the Penguins’ defence, led by puck movers Ryan Whitney and Kristopher Letang and sharpshooter Sergei Zubov clearly outclasses the largely no-name Rangers defence and players such as Maxime Talbot, Jarkko Ruttu and Ryan Malone give Pittsburgh the jam they need to compete against the likes of Avery and Ryan Callahan. Really, the only edge the Rangers have is Lundqvist over Marc-Andre Fleury in goal. That may be worth a victory or two, but this is Pittsburgh’s series to lose.

Penguins 4, Rangers 2

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

It’s almost like a homecoming for Crosby, who played his junior hockey in Rimouski, which is just up the Gaspé Peninsula. Still, Crosby’s welcome in Montreal will be hardly cordial, since Montreal is likely to be viewed as the underdog despite being the higher seed. That underdog tag will be more than an illusion as the teams are match up well until you see Pittsburgh’s far deeper forward cast. Montreal does have enough talent to push Pittsburgh to the brink (especially with Price), but the Penguins have enough magic to pull out of La Belle Province with a hard-fought, Eastern Conference-winning performance.

Penguins 4, Canadiens 3

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

Doesn’t come with the same kind of sizzle that earlier Wings-Avs series did, but old rivalries die hard. Many of the veterans from series past- Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote on Colorado and Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper and Chris Chelios on Detroit- are still present on both teams ensuring that the nastiness from years past will at least make an appearance. The nastiness factor might seem convincing enough to take Colorado in this series, since the Red Wings don’t have the muscle to win that battle, while the fact that Detroit needed a fluke goal in Game 6 against a better-focused (but clearly overmatched Nashville team) adds fuel to the Colorado fire; but this series will be anything but a slam dunk for the Avalanche. It was the goaltending of Jose Theodore and the fact that the Avalanche faced an offensively challenged Minnesota Wild team that pulled the Avalanche out of Round 1, as Sakic, Forsberg and Foote are past their primes, and Ryan Smyth and Paul Stastny have no support lower on the depth chart (in addition to both being virtually invisible in Round 1). Detroit, meanwhile, can throw Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk up front as well as Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski on the back end in addition to having a capable army of smart two-way players who will never give up the puck. Plus, the Avalanche just aren’t mean enough to really throw Detroit off their game. Colorado will probably eke out a win or two, but don’t expect any repeats of years past, since the Red Wings have more than enough to cruise into Round 3.

Red Wings 4, Avalanche 1

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

Any doubts that the Sharks couldn’t be a Stanley Cup-contending team can be laid to rest after the four-goal second period drowned the Calgary Flames out of Game 7 and out of the playoffs in Round 1. San Jose survived a series that lived up to the hype as the closest matched series in the first round and only pulled through because the Flames had the one “bad period” in Game 7 that the series had yet to see. In addition to dousing Calgary’s Stanley Cup aspirations (and the added confidence that brings), the Sharks also re-established their best players among the league’s elite, as Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau finally broke loose against the Flames, with the old warrior Jeremy Roenick providing the added leadership that perhaps San Jose had lacked in previous years. The only concern might be defenceman Brian Campbell’s sub-par performance, but he did pick it up in the final two games signalling a breakout. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars didn’t at all look thoroughly convincing in their upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks, since that series was marked more by the Ducks shooting themselves in the foot with too many penalties (and, despite what Don Cherry said about it, none of them was due to roughness- all of them were obvious and stupid, including needless cross-checks and obvious trips and hooks) and a Dallas team that needed a third period outburst in Game 6 to defeat an Anaheim team that had more purpose in staving off elimination in Game 5 following a 3-1 series deficit. Still, there’s enough on the Stars’ roster to give the Sharks a push, including power forward Brendan Morrow, elite two-way forward Brad Richards, the revitalized Stephane Robidas and Mike Ribeiro and Marty Turco, the affable elite goaltender who showed he finally could win a playoff series. However, I’d be hard-pressed to pick against San Jose following their performance against Calgary and despite all the talent on Dallas’ roster, there’s just not enough to overcome the Bay Area-ers in 2008.

Sharks 4, Stars 2

Conference Final

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #2 San Jose Sharks

The Wings may have won last year in six games but they didn’t play a Sharks team quite like this one, one that will have a lot more purpose, passion and talent than the team Detroit put away last year. This is where the Hockeytown dream dies, since the Wings finally face off against that physical team with skill that would be problematic for them, although San Jose isn’t quite Anaheim in terms of physicality. Still, anyone expecting a tight series will be disappointed, because by this point San Jose will be brimming with confidence after two rounds and the Wings will look more like they’re stumbling through being merely lucky to get the favourable draw for the playoff match-ups that they did. Look for the Sharks to avenge last year in four quick games.

Sharks 4, Wings 0

STANLEY CUP FINAL

W2 San Jose Sharks vs. E2 Pittsburgh Penguins

The pundits in Canada will whine the series will have no sizzle without a “traditional” (re: Canadian) team in the Final (despite the fact that Crosby is playing in this final) but once the series starts they’ll realize there’s a lot to love. It’ll be the physical Sharks against the skilled Penguins, with both teams matching up considerably well. San Jose does have an edge in goal- Evgeni Nabokov over Fleury- but that won’t be enough to tilt the series considerably in the Sharks’ favour as the Penguins’ speed and talent level will give San Jose coach Ron Wilson fits all series long. This will be an exciting series to watch, full of goals and full of hits and, much like Calgary-San Jose, will be up-and-down all series long. At the end of the day, it’ll be the Sharks bringing the Cup back to the West Coast, as although the Penguins have slightly more skill, the Sharks have more muscle and at this time of year, that means everything. Pittsburgh will show the NHL world that they will be a force for years to come, but their Stanley Cup won’t arrive this year.

Sharks 4, Penguins 3

-DG

How about a playoff lottery?

Hearing Ottawa Senators General Manager/coach Bryan Murray claim that the Pittsburgh Penguins "tanked" just so they could face the Senators in the first round of the playoffs got me thinking- since the National Hockey League has a "draft lottery" to prevent teams from tanking to get a great pick why not have a "playoff lottery" to ensure teams don't tank to get a more favourable opponent? My idea works as follows:

There would be two groups, one for the highest and lowest seeds and one for the mid-table ones. This would mean that #1 would be randomly selected to play either #7 or #8 (with #2 playing the team #1 did not draw out of those two) and the same with #3 and #4 with the #5 and #6 seeds. The rest of the playoffs would remain the same with reseeding after the first round.

Another option would be to allow the higher seeds to select who they will play in the first two rounds among the lower seeds, with the #1 seed getting the first choice, the #2 seed getting the second choice, and so on. Teams would not be allowed to select a team that would qualify for home-ice advantage in that round (in the first round the #1,#2,#3 and #4 seeds could only select from the seeds #5-#8 and in the second round the teams reseeded #1 and #2 could only select from the teams reseeded #3 and #4) to ensure that the strongest teams at least have the shot (that they earned) to have a deep run in the playoffs.

Neither idea are precedented (nor do I think the Penguins really tanked, albeit it is close), but I think the NHL owes itself to make some kind of alteration to the playoffs to make sure teams don't "abuse" the standings to ensure they'll have a competitive edge.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball- 2008 Stanley Cup Playoff Edition

Well, the regular season has been decided and there were a couple of surprises- most notably that of the Montreal Canadiens- and a couple of disappointments (none more notable than the Ottawa Senators, who wasted a great start)- so that means time to dust off the old crystal ball and see how the playoffs will be determined. In last season’s playoffs I was correct in eight of 15 playoff series, and, in this regular season I correctly predicted 12 of the 16 playoff entrants. So here goes with another set of predictions:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

First Round

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #8 Boston Bruins

This will be the 31^st instalment of the one-sided Montreal-Boston playoff rivalry (the Canadiens have won 23 of the previous 30 series) but this figures to be the most intriguing. Neither team were expected to be playoff teams yet both took the Eastern Conference by storm in qualifying for unexpected berths. They both play the same way- to borrow a tennis analogy they are “aggressive counter-punchers”, relying on great defence to create offence, with both boasting a great compliment of great checkers (Mike Komisarek and Maxim Lapierre for Montreal alongside Andrew Alberts and PJ Axelsson for Boston) with great scorers (Alexei Kovalev for Montreal and Marc Savard for Boston). The difference is going to be in net, and that is what will give Montreal their 24^th victory in their playoff encounters- as good as Tim Thomas is for Boston, he’s not comparable to sensational rookie Carey Price, who looks primed to be the Patrick Roy of his generation. The series might be closer because of the (prospective) absence of Canadiens captain Saku Koivu, but there’s no reason to believe Montreal cannot escape comfortably to the second round.

Canadiens 4, Bruins 2

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators

A re-match of last season’s opening round series, only this time it’s the Penguins who are the higher seed. Last season the Senators dominated Pittsburgh by throwing around Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin & Co. who looked out of sorts in their first playoff series, but, now that they know what the NHL playoffs is like, they’ll be better prepared and ready to face the Ottawa assault. A lot will be made of the fact Ottawa backed into the playoffs by slumping from first to seventh during the course of the season (with the Senators done in by shaky goaltending and huge lapses in defensive zone coverage) and the absence of a second-line centre really hurt the team this season, but make no mistake- the Senators still have a lot of their weapons from last year’s great playoff team (Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Wade Redden, Chris Phillips, etc.) and thus they are still a very potent team that has a lot more skill than their seeding suggests. The Penguins shouldn’t feel comfortable playing the Senators, who just might feel they could make a similar run the 1999 Buffalo Sabres did, a team that, like Ottawa, was once first in the Eastern Conference only to slump at the end of the season. This series will be fun to watch, and whoever wins will only do so barely- and the crystal ball is clearly displaying the grand logo of the Ottawa centurion.

Senators 4, Penguins 3

#3 Washington Capitals vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

The Capitals are the NHL’s version of the Colorado Rockies, a team that came from nowhere to win its division. Winners of 13 of their last 16 games and their last seven overall, Washington stealthily stole the division (and a playoff spot in the process) from the Carolina Hurricanes and enters the playoffs full of confidence and youthful enthusiasm with home-ice advantage to boot. They’ll face a Philadelphia Flyers team that is emerging from the rubble of last season’s debacle and thus has something to prove, and might feel “lucky” to face a Capitals team that really should be ranked eighth. They’ll be boosted by the fact that several veterans of the Flyers’ playoff runs of yesteryear (Derian Hatcher, Simon Gagne, Mike Richards) are still around and key contributors, but the Capitals will be anything but a cakewalk. Alexander Ovechkin established himself as the league’s best player in potting an astounding 65 goals this season as well as adding an element of defence and hitting to his game, making him just as well-rounded as Jarome Iginla or Vincent Lecavalier. Of course, the Capitals are more than just Ovechkin, boasting great rookie Nicklas Backstrom as well as super youngster Alexander Semin and deadline-day acquisitions Sergei Fedorov and Cristobal Huet, the latter of whom went a long way in solidifying their playoff spot. The big variable will be whether or not the Capitals’ young guns will be ready for the playoffs and while Fedorov and Huet have experience, neither of them have been out of the first round since 2002 (when Fedorov won his last Cup with the Detroit Red Wings). Washington should have enough to give Philadelphia a push, but the Flyers’ experience should be enough to carry the day.

Flyers 4, Capitals 3

#4 New Jersey Devils vs. #5 New York Rangers

Rematch of the 2006 series the Devils dominated, but this year’s Rangers team is miles ahead of the “happy-to-be-here” version that was soundly clocked by New Jersey. The Devils also don’t have a lot of the talent they had in that series, as Brian Rafalski is in Detroit and Scott Gomez is across the Hudson- and playing against them in this series. The Rangers should also be buoyed by the fact they gave the favoured Buffalo Sabres a run in the second round last season and the addition of Gomez as well as former Sabre Chris Drury to that team gives a New York team that already has Brendan Shanahan and Jaromir Jagr quite the offensive punch, and the addition of Christian Backman at the deadline gives the Rangers the puck moving defenceman they needed. Plus, this may be the year that Martin Brodeur’s armour starts to fade- he’ll be 36 in May and didn’t look at all like himself in last year’s playoffs, so Henrik Lundqvist is primed to outplay the legend. The fact New Jersey has home ice should give them a bit of a lift, but this series has “Rangers” written all over it.

Rangers 4, Devils 1

Second Round

#1 Montreal vs. #7 Ottawa

The “Highway 40 Series” (denoting the highway that links Ottawa and Montreal together), this should be the series where Koivu comes back to Montreal (if he doesn’t come back against Boston). That should give the Canadiens a lift against the potent Senators, against whom they figure to have a high-scoring series (both teams are the two highest scoring teams in the league), so the determining factor will be who can make the best defensive adjustment. That team is Montreal, who are just that much better than the Senators are at defence and should carry them to the Conference Final.

Canadiens 4, Senators 2

#5 New York vs. #6 Philadelphia

After facing Brodeur in the first round, the Rangers will feel relieved they get to face Martin Biron, who isn’t a bad goaltender in his own right but certainly isn’t Brodeur. Still, the Flyers have a lot more at their disposal other than Biron- including more offensive weapons than New York- and that alone is going to give the Rangers quite the test. Not only that, but the much more physical Flyers should figure to push the Rangers around (Sean Avery will have his hands full, if not bloodied, by the end of the series), meaning if New York advances they’ll have nothing left for the Conference Final. That won’t happen though- the combination of Philadelphia’s energy in both the physical and scoring departments and the Rangers’ lack of weapons in response will see the Flyers advance to their first Conference Final since 2004.

Flyers 4, Rangers 2

Conference Final

#1 Montreal vs. #6 Philadelphia

The Canadiens should figure they’ll be prepared for the Flyers after playing the big Bruins, but Philadelphia is a different beast. The Flyers are big but can also score, whereas the Bruins are just big, which will pose countless problems for the Montreal coaching staff. The Canadiens measure up more than others might think with the likes of Guillame Latendresse and Komisarek, but even there, line-for-line, pound-for-pound, the Flyers are simply better. Montreal should push Philadelphia to the brink, but by the point the Canadiens will have nothing left, spurring the Flyers all the way to the Cup Final.

Flyers 4, Canadiens 3

WESTERN CONFERENCE

First Round

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Nashville Predators

If it wasn’t for the Canadiens, the Predators would be the surprise of the season. Left for dead after the dismantling they went through in the off-season, Nashville- led by the likes of ex-Sabre Jean-Pierre Dumont (who finally showed he can carry a team), long-timer Marek Zidlicky and the goaltending tandem of Dan Ellis and Chris Mason- channelled the spirit of their plucky 2004 selves and made the playoffs against incredible odds. They’ll need to work similar magic if they expect to get past the powerful, President’s Trophy-winning Red Wings, who look more like a soccer team than a hockey team with their puck possession approach. There are still question marks on the Detroit roster- size for one, plus a distinct lack of finishing ability (as good as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are, they’re playmakers not snipers) and the fact their goaltending is ancient (Domonik Hasek’s and Chris Osgood’s best days are long behind both). However, the Predators don’t have nearly enough weapons to exploit any of those weaknesses, and while the hockey world figured they passed their expectations just by reaching the playoffs, there may those who will wonder if that’s good enough after realizing Nashville still hasn’t won a playoff series.

Red Wings 4, Predators 0

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Calgary Flames

The Sharks- hockey’s greatest tease- finally got over the hump by winning the Pacific Division after two straight seasons finishing in fifth, knocking out Nashville in the first round and getting bounced themselves in Round 2. Thus, San Jose could actually deliver on all that promise they offered, especially after the addition of Brian Campbell from Buffalo makes the team that much faster. However, the familiar refrain in the Bay Area is the fact Joe Thornton has yet to lead any team past the second round, and compounding the problem is the fact that despite all the talent on San Jose’s roster- arguably the deepest in the NHL- they will face the equally talented but also equally underachieving Calgary Flames, out to prove they’re not going to have another run of 15 consecutive seasons without advancing from the first round. This could be the closest of all the playoff series, as San Jose and Calgary match up extremely well on paper- both teams have elite-level goaltending (Evgeni Nabokov and Miika Kiprusoff), great checkers (Joe Pavelski and Ryan Clowe for San Jose vs. Stephane Yelle and Owen Nolan for Calgary), elite-level forwards (Thornton and Jarome Iginla), good secondary scorers (Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo for San Jose and Alex Tanguay and Daymond Langkow for Calgary) and a deep blueline (led by Christian Erhoff, Matt Carle and Campbell in San Jose and Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr and Adrian Aucoin in Calgary). Not only that, but each team’s weaknesses cancel each other out- the Sharks lack an elite-level sniper (Thornton led the team with 29 goals) while the Flames lack an elite-level playmaker (Iginla led the team with 48 assists), and San Jose’s offensive-minded defence corps will be countered by Calgary’s shutdown-oriented counterparts. What just mind win the day is experience, and the fact of the matter is despite the fact the Sharks haven’t been to the Conference Final since they played these very Flames in 2004 (during Calgary’s magical Stanley Cup run), the Sharks have still managed to get past the first round against talented sides, even if that side was Nashville both times. So expect the series to go to the wire- maybe even overtime in Game 7- but it’ll be the Sharks who will move through.

Sharks 4, Flames 3

#3 Minnesota Wild vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

A lot was made of the Senators’ troubles this season, but equally disappointing was Colorado, a team pegged to win the Northwest after snagging Ryan Smyth in the off-season. It was perhaps this disappointment that led to the Avalanche to hold a reunion of sorts on trade deadline day, acquiring old Stanley Cup stalwarts Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote and so nearly convincing Patrick Roy to come out of retirement (okay, that last one was a joke). The result is a pastiche of a team that looks stronger than it actually is, since for every talent the team can boast (such as Joe Sakic, Smyth, Paul Stastny, Jose Theodore and Forsberg), it has two question marks right beside it (no defenceman scored more than Jeff Finger’s eight goals, and Wojtek Wolski produced only 18 goals and 48 points in a second-line capacity). Still, despite all their weaknesses, the Wild are not so much better than they are that the Avs don’t have a shot. Minnesota’s offence is comparable in overall talent to Colorado’s, as even though Marian Gaborik is Minnesota’s only 80+ point producer with 83, the Wild have six players who passed 40 points, two past sixty (counting Pavol Demitra) and a defenceman over 10 goals (Brent Burns with 15), compared to Colorado’s five past 40 points and only one past sixty (Stastny); and, as good as Niklas Backstrom is in net for Minnesota, he’s no comparison to Theodore. At the end of the day, though, it’s worth pointing out that Minnesota did win the toughest division in hockey- the Northwest- and, playing against a Northwest team in Colorado, it should signify that the Wild have what it takes to advance. Paper may suggest the Avalanche, but games are won on the ice and Minnesota has already shown it can win there.

Wild 4, Avalanche 2

#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

No worries for a Stanley Cup hangover here, as the Ducks finished in a comfortable fourth position despite a horrid start and looking like the Cup winners they were last year, especially after Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer came back. In front of them this year is Dallas in the first round, a team that filled a significant hole by acquiring Brad Richards at the trade deadline. Richards gives Dallas that elite-level centre to pair with Brendan Morrow they were lacking all season (since Mike Modano is past his prime) and makes Dallas a very scary No. 5. Not only that, but Marty Turco no longer has the “great regular season goaltender” tag dogging him anymore, meaning the Stars’ talent is very real and gives an Anaheim team a tough first round test a year after breezing through the first two rounds. However, Anaheim won without much depth last year, but the story is different- Todd Bertuzzi and Mathieu Schneider provide a nice compliment to Selanne and Ryan Getzlaf up front and Chris Pronger, Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin on the back end; plus Anaheim has an elite level goaltender themselves in Jean-Sebastien Giguere. The two teams match up very well, but what will set the two apart is Anaheim’s size and experience, as the Stars haven’t been out of the first round since a 2003 loss against a then-upstart Anaheim team. It won’t be a deserved first-round exit, since Dallas looked so much stronger, but the Stars consigned themselves to this fate by their own poor start.

Ducks 4, Stars 2

Second Round

#1 Detroit vs. #4 Anaheim

The 2007 Conference Finals, Part II. Anaheim won last year because of their size, smacking around a clearly undersized Red Wings team that still isn’t up to that task, and, worse, has to contend with a much deeper Ducks team in this go around. Add to that the sieve-like goaltending the Michiganders are receiving and this has the potential to get ugly. There’s nothing else for Anaheim to do except win this series handily thus guaranteeing themselves another easy trip to the Conference Final.

Ducks 4, Red Wings 0

#2 San Jose vs. #3 Minnesota

From “faux elite” to elite, the Wild will also have their hands full against a deep Sharks team whose only fault for this series might be how winded they are after facing Calgary. That said, the defensively-sound Wild boast enough offence this time around to give the Sharks a fight, especially considering San Jose is an offensive-minded team and thus will have a very difficult time fighting through Jacques Lemaire’s positionally smart bunch. What will again be Minnesota’s undoing is a lack of offence, because even though the Wild should figure to contain the Sharks’ offence, it has enough weapons to find a way through meaning at some point the Wild will need to counterattack; and as long as the Sharks focus on Gaborik (Minnesota’s only threat), that will prove impossible. It won’t be a cakewalk for San Jose, but Minnesota just doesn’t have enough to bring them over the hump.

Sharks 4, Wild 2

Conference Final

#2 San Jose vs. #4 Anaheim

The Battle of California…maybe it’s not as romantic as a Los Angeles Kings-Anaheim Ducks confrontation, but the fact they’re both from the same state will make this match-up spicy enough. Anaheim will be buoyed by an easy second round and pumped to get back to the Cup Final for a second year in a row, while San Jose will be a team full of confidence after proving they’re finally capable of making good use of the embarrassment of riches they have. These two teams also match up considerably well, both being very energetic sides that can score and hit, meaning we just may have a new rivalry on our hands by the time this series is over (especially considering Pronger is still loathed in San Jose from his days as a St. Louis Blue). This will also be a very close series, but the Ducks have enough firepower and more experience to see them through to a second-consecutive Cup Final, leaving the Sharks again empty-handed- but at least with something to build upon for next season.

Ducks 4, Sharks 3

STANLEY CUP FINAL

#4W Anaheim vs. #6E Philadelphia

The New Broad Street Bullies vs. The Original Broad Street Bullies, there’s enough intrigue here to fill the sports pages on both sides of the border. At first glance, one knows there will be blood in this series, since the Flyers are definitely going to set out to prove that they are still the NHL’s toughest team and not the upstart Ducks, while Anaheim will be out to prove that it too can stand alongside the ’74 and ’75 Flyers in the annals of hockey history. Not that fisticuffs will be the only thing featured in this series- there will be lots of goals, great saves and loads of energy, so much so that this just might be the most entertaining Cup Final in recent memory even if it won’t go down to the wire. Standing above it, though, will be Anaheim, who are just a hair deeper than the Flyers are and that will prove the difference. Still, Philadelphia will give the defending champs quite the run and warm many hockey hearts in the process so even if they don’t lift hockey’s ultimate prize, they’ll still have a lot to hold their heads up high to.

Ducks 4, Flyers 2

-DG